Philip Keidel, Author at Crossing Broad

2022 Open Championship at St Andrews: Betting Picks, Long Shots, and Prediction

Philip Keidel — Wed, 13 Jul 2022 20:15:34 +0000

The 150th Open Championship is being contested at St Andrews, widely known (truthfully or not) as the birthplace of golf. The defining characteristic of the Old Course, aside from the hotel parked unhelpfully right of the 17th tee and the road perched by that green, is a lack of defining characteristics.

It is a very flat piece of ground pockmarked with bunkers, some of which grown men can’t see out of. When there is weather at St Andrews, the golf course holds up well even against the best professionals. Without weather, though, the course is nearly defenseless except for some of the random rolls of balls off greens, into gorse, into bunkers, etc. As of this writing, the reports from Scotland indicate that the golf course is very hard. Not difficult — hard:

St Andrews is firm! pic.twitter.com/FJnXmfpaYO

— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) July 11, 2022

Rain is predicted for Friday, but not enough to undo what an arid summer has done to St Andrews to date. There isn’t expected to be anything like real weather during the Open. As such, you can expect some video game scores — guys shooting 64, par-4 holes being reached off the tee with long irons and so on. Traditionalists will grumble that it’s sad to see the Old Course undone by modern technology and balls that fly too far. But most fans are going to love it. Birdies and eagles are fun!

Let’s get into the picks and predictions for this week’s Open Championship.

VALUE PICK: TIGER WOODS TOP 40 FINISH (-110)

Tiger Woods has been one of golf’s biggest stories all season despite only playing in the Masters and the U.S. Open. He is the greatest living player still capable of competing at the highest level. His withdrawal from the U.S. Open after making the cut while visibly limping was a concession to his continuing convalescence from his terrible automobile accident and also an indication that he wanted to be healthy this week.

Apparently, he is. Woods has walked upwards of 60 holes in practice rounds leading up to tomorrow. There is no such thing as free money, but Woods finishing in the top 40 in this field feels close to that. He loves this golf course, he has won here, and the firm/fast conditions will mean he won’t have to swing very hard or deal with too many testy lies in order to get the ball around the course. Woods has lost some gears over the years through injury and whatever, but his touch around the greens is still essentially perfect.

LONG SHOT PICK: WILL ZALATORIS TOP 5 FINISH (+500)

Zalatoris tried to throw us off the scent by missing the cut at the Scottish Open last weekend, but we’re not that dumb. Willy Z’s major finishes so far this season: tied for sixth at the Masters, lost a playoff for the PGA Championship, tied for second at the U.S. Open. The primary reason it’s difficult to feel great betting on Zalatoris at any point in time looks like this:

I'm pretty sure that Zalatoris is now intentionally hitting short putts off the toe.

The "signing his name" putting stroke is getting more and more exaggerated…. yet somehow more controlled?

I mean, this is gonna be must watch for the next four days: https://t.co/IyotSjNOvs pic.twitter.com/4Vt1hinbyY

— No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) April 7, 2022

So maybe bet on him but whatever you do, don’t watch him putt anything inside four feet.

PICK TO WIN THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP: JUSTIN THOMAS (+1600)

Just like Zalatoris, Thomas missed the cut at the Scottish Open last weekend. He did so in inglorious fashion, posting 73-77, finishing ten over par for two rounds. That’s gross.

What golf fans sometimes don’t understand, though, is that more likely than not, Thomas wasn’t trying to win the Scottish Open last weekend. He was working on the sorts of shots he will need to hit at St Andrews, whether those shots fit the Scottish Open course or not. For that matter, he was probably delighted to miss the cut, as it gave him all the more time at St Andrews.

It took Thomas a long time to get his second major title. He won the PGA Championship in 2017 and looked like a guy who was going to stack major trophies for years. But it took five full years for Thomas to win his second major; he beat Zalatoris in the aforementioned playoff at the PGA in May. Thomas is ranked seventh the current Official World Golf Ranking, and has been playing practice rounds with Woods this week. It’s hard to imagine a better teacher at the Old Course.

Thomas is ready to make the leap from a guy who takes years to win multiple majors to a guy who takes months to win multiple majors.

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2022 U.S. Open Picks and Predictions

Philip Keidel — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 20:38:14 +0000

The 2022 United States Open Championship will be played at The Country Club in Brookline, MA this week. This venue has seen the site of several historic moments in golf history. Weirdly, it’s going to be another host to another huge moment in professional golf history: This will be the first major championship in the LIV Golf era.

LIV is the worst thing to happen to professional golf in its history. It’s worse than anything Tiger Woods ever did, which is really saying something. It’s worse than anything Phil Mickelson ever did before he signed on with the Saudis, which, again, is really saying something. It’s also, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, worse than Patrick Reed doing this in a tournament with real money on the line:

https://twitter.com/MJBKLB11/status/1203065395176857600?s=20&t=mScLl4LnvVPOt97ePkXazg

Multiple outlets, including this one, have touched on the disastrous political and moral implications of the likes of Mickelson, Reed, Dustin Johnson and other elite American golfers abandoning the PGA Tour this way. It’s sad, it’s unjustifiable, and it’s crass. The problem, ultimately, is that it’s definitely not going away.

James Piot finished his senior year at Michigan State this summer. Piot played at the Masters in April after receiving an invite for winning the U.S. Amateur in 2021. Hopefully, Piot took a lot of pictures of Augusta National while he was there, because after eschewing the traditional route to the PGA Tour (mini-tours, qualifying school, sponsors’ exemptions) and taking the LIV Tour’s money, Piot probably isn’t getting back to Augusta for a competitive tournament for a really long time, if ever.

In a related story, Piot, who isn’t even close to a quality professional golfer at this stage of his life, finished tied for 25th in the inaugural LIV Golf Event in London last week, out of 48 players. That finish would ordinarily be a cut in a normal PGA Tour event. Instead, Piot made $166,000.00. And that, dear reader, is the problem.

LIV Golf has unlimited sums to dole out to even merely decent amateur players right now in hopes that, over time, a handful or more of them will develop into major contenders. The upstart league can also afford to jettison anyone who doesn’t play well enough to satisfy their arbitrary standards (looking at you, James Piot) along the way. So, on a purely statistical basis, the odds are definitely on the next Woods, Mickelson, or Rory McIlroy coming out of LIV Golf before the PGA Tour develops another mega-star.

And that’s really discouraging. On to the picks:

VALUE PICK: LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN TOP 20 (+150)

Oosthuizen is another of the guilty and the damned, having jumped to LIV Golf for the guaranteed money. In his case, it really was easy pickings. Oosthuizen finished in the top 12 in the individual draw of the first tournament, pocketing a cool $560,000.00. Separately, Oosthuizen left London with another $750,000.00 as part of the four-man team that won $3 million for winning the team event.

This is all filthy, tainted cash, but Oosthuizen seems like one of those people you meet in life who doesn’t think too much about what anyone thinks of him. So he’s the breakout star of the LIV guys in terms of betting this week. He hasn’t had a great 2022 by his lofty standards, which probably informed his decision to jump to the LIV Tour. But before 2022, Oosthuizen had finished in the top ten in each of these events: U.S. Open 2019 through 2021; PGA Championship 2021; Open Championship 2021. Jump on this while you can.

US Open line movement at @BetMGM

Open (July 2021), current

Rory McIlroy +1400 to +1100
Scottie Scheffler +4000 to +1200
Cameron Smith +5000 to +2200
Will Zalatoris +4000 to +2500

— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 13, 2022

LONG SHOT PICK: CAMERON SMITH TOP 5 (+450)

If you have read my work before, you know how much I love me some Cameron Smith. He makes a ton of birdies despite sometimes driving it in places you’re not supposed to go because his short game is beyond elite and he may be the best putter in the world.

This golf course, only playing at around 7,250 yards, may test his accuracy. If he hits it out of bounds more than once this week, this bet is in real trouble. But assuming that he can manage the misses well enough, the relatively short golf course with its undulating and tricky greens will actually play to his advantage.

PICK TO WIN THE 2022 U.S. OPEN: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (+1400)

Scheffler won the Masters this year and, from that point, he’s been solid. He bounced back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship to finish second (he lost a playoff) at the Charles Schwab Challenge the following week at Colonial Country Club. Scheffler tuned up for the U.S. Open with last week’s tie for 18th place at the RBC Canadian Open.

There are two really good reasons to pick Scheffler this week. The first is that he is the reigning number one player in the world. The second, more compelling reason is that while so many of his contemporaries at the top of the sport (McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm et al) have been vocal and seemingly consumed with the LIV Golf controversy and its threat to the PGA Tour in recent days, Scheffler has for the most part kept quiet. With the exception of this essentially perfect quip:

Scottie Scheffler on guys joining LIV Tour:

“I haven’t really noticed anyone missing this week. Maybe outside of DJ.”#RBCCO

— Lukas Weese (@Weesesports) June 8, 2022

That’s what a United States Open champion sounds like.

The post 2022 U.S. Open Picks and Predictions appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 12, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Thu, 12 May 2022 16:59:34 +0000

On Thursday night, the Sixers return home to play their first “win or go home” game of the 2021-2022 NBA Playoffs. Game 6 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series is must-win because the Sixers –who drew dead even with the Miami Heat with two clutch, gutty wins in Games 3 and 4 of the series– went to Miami and lost by 35 points in Game 5. Thirty. Five. Points. It was gross, and the score actually flattered the Sixers, who played as though they were resigned to a seven-game series. Now, that’s the best they can do.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 12, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 12, 2022)

We don’t pull from Russian literature in this serial post often (though, come to think of it, maybe we should). We’re doing it here, though. In a novel you were probably assigned to read at some point but which you almost certainly did not read (Anna Karenina), Tolstoy wrote the following: “All happy families are alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

Scholars, men of letters, and gamblers alike, with that quote, we give you the 2021-2022 Philadelphia 76ers. By this literary metric, the Sixers are obviously one of those unhappy teams that is unhappy in its own way.

Championship teams have visionary yet consistent head coaches. The Sixers have Doc Rivers.

Championship teams have multiple stars. The Sixers have one star, Joel Embiid, and then two guys (James Harden, Tyrese Maxey) who sparkle one night and then are entirely invisible on many others.

Championship teams have bench units that can, at the very least, maintain a lead (or even extend it!), or at least not vomit all over themselves. The Sixers have Georges Niang, Shake Milton, Furkan Korkmaz and whichever Big Lots Embiid Rivers chooses to toss out there in Embiid’s place.

Championship teams regularly win on the road against playoff teams. The Sixers are 0-3 in this series in Miami. Yeah, they went 2-1 in Toronto. That series wasn’t supposed to go six games.

Lastly, championship teams don’t generally put their MVP-caliber player in no-win situations. When Embiid remarked the other night that he would either A) be considered soft for not playing, or B) get ripped for playing through injury and losing, that was really telling. Embiid’s teammates owe him their success as a general rule. Specifically, they owe him their continued life in this playoff run. If they no-show on him in Game 6 like they did in Game 5, well, at least Embiid can go heal.

Every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, all right. The Sixers, so jubilant after Game 4, need to stave off a final unhappiness in Game 6.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -2.5 (-110), Heat +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -138, Heat +118
Total: 207

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win By 1-10 Points (+180, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We think the Sixers are going to win this game. More on that below. For the purpose of this item, which is how to maximize profit assuming a Sixers win, well, think about it. The Sixers and the Heat have played five games in this series to this point. The margins of victory in these games were as follows: Heat +14, Heat +16, Sixers +20, Sixers +8, Heat +35. Only Game 4 was watchable, and even that one was only watchable if you are a Sixers fan. The NBA doesn’t sell advertisements based on the draw of blowouts. We expect the Sixers to win, and we expect it to be close.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Sixers First Half Moneyline (-135, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Sixers led by seven points at the half in Game 3 and they led by eight at the half in Game 4. Both of those games were in the vein of elimination games. Game 6 is, quite literally, an elimination game.

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Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Embiid has been under 25.5 points in all three of the games he has played in this series. But sometimes you have to look into the numbers. In Game 5, Embiid scored 17 points on 7-12 shooting from the field and 3-3 from the free throw line. Do you see what we see? No three-point makes (he missed his only try). Three free throws. Three! Get out of here with that. Wait until you see the whistle Embiid gets at home in Game 6.

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James Harden Over 8.5 Assists (-143, FOX Bet)

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It would be overstating things to say Harden is playing for his extension in this game. He’s probably getting another year (or four) in a Sixers uniform no matter what happens in this game. Still, it’s one thing to have a mediocre game in Game 7 in Miami and say “well, we were on the road in Game 7, it happens.” It’s another to go out on the home court in Game 6 and have the locals calling for your head. Harden may not play a great Game 6, but he probably won’t play poorly.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

Usually we spend a lot of words on the game prediction. Not this time. The NBA wants this series to go seven games, and it will.

Pick: Sixers moneyline (-136, Barstool Sportsbook)

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The post Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 12, 2022) appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 10, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Tue, 10 May 2022 17:28:42 +0000

On Tuesday night, the Sixers return to the city where the heat is on to take on Miami in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Sixers aren’t quite the embodiment of the “Undertaker rising out of his coffin” WWE meme, but it’s close. They looked deader than dead down 0-2 in this series. It was unclear whether Joel Embiid would play in the series. It was also an open question whether he could be effective. Well, he played, and he’s been very good, and the series is now tied.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 10, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 10, 2022)

The 2022 NBA Playoffs, if you look hard enough, has a “Ghosts of Process Past” feel to it.

The Sixers began their playoff run against the Toronto Raptors. Granted, Kawhi Leonard was no longer there, but Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet were. The presence of both of those players, who had a hand in eliminating the Sixers from the playoffs a few years back, couldn’t be ignored. The Sixers exacted a modicum of revenge against Siakam, VanVleet and the Raptors with that series win.

Against the Heat, the Sixers have had to deal with an obviously motivated and on-form Jimmy Butler, who was the Sixers’ leading scorer in that aforementioned Raptors series. Here are Butler’s point totals this series, in order: 15, 22, 33, 40. We’re not betting that he gets 50 tonight, but we wouldn’t necessarily rule it out entirely, either.

If the Sixers survive this series, there is a nonzero chance that they will have to take on the Boston Celtics, tied 2-2 with home court against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Celtics’ best player is a guy you have definitely heard of. Jayson Tatum has averaged 22.5 points, almost six rebounds and five and a half assists in the first four games of that series, all while assuming a heavy defensive burden and playing more than 41 minutes each game. Did you know the Sixers could have drafted Tatum instead of Markelle Fultz? Not a lot of people know that.

And then, if they somehow make the NBA Finals and the Phoenix Suns do too, they’ll run into Mikal Bridges, who they drafted and promptly gave away. Yeah, I know, Tobias Harris got here at least in part with a draft pick that came along with Zhaire Smith. Ask yourself this: Would you rather have had Bridges on his rookie deal or paid Harris about $35 million a year?

It’s a small world after all. The chances of the Sixers winning a title still aren’t all that great — they’re not even favored to survive this series — but in doing so, they could put so much of the recent past behind them.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +2.5 (+108), Heat -2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Sixers +124, Heat -146
Total: 209.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win By 1-10 Points (+220, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Sixers have lost two games in this series outright, won one game by 20 (a game where the Heat just didn’t show up) and then won Game 4 by eight points. If you like the Sixers to win, this point-range wager makes plenty of sense, because there doesn’t seem to be any path to the Sixers winning this game by more than 10 points.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Heat First Half Moneyline (-145, Caesars Sportsbook)

Both teams have held serve on home court in this series, and the Heat jumped out on the Sixers in both first quarters in Games 1 and 2. The Sixers clawed back to win the first half in Game 1, so this wager isn’t the lock that it should be, but it stands to reason that the Heat will come out of the blocks fast again in this game. That should carry them to winning the first half, at least.

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Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Before his injury at the end of Game 6 of the Raptors series, Embiid was alternating between big games (31 points in Game 2, 33 points in Game 3, 33 points in Game 6) and, by his standard, poor games — in the other three games in that series, he never had more than 21 points in any of them. Raw data from this Heat series, where he has played twice, isn’t very helpful. We have to make this pick based on what we see. Embiid is getting stronger, and he is clearly on some kind of mission. Basically, we’re saying that analytically, this should be an under…we just don’t believe it.

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Danny Green Over 8.5 Points (+105, FOX Bet)

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The books hate Green in this game. He’s -136 to go for fewer than 8.5 points just about everywhere. In fairness, he scored eight points — total — in the first two games of the series in Miami. He had six points at Miami on March 5. Maybe he just doesn’t like the sight lines in that building. But Green’s a notoriously streaky shooter, and he has made ten of his last thirteen three-point attempts. He can go like three for eight tonight and still hit this over. We’re going with it.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

The Heat shot 38% from three-point range in the regular season. In the first four games of this series, their shooting percentages from outside the arc have been 25%, 48%, 23% and 20%. At home, Game 5, desperate to avoid a 2-3 hole going back to Philadelphia…the Heat are likely to shoot the eyes out of it tonight at home.

Pick: Heat moneyline (-141, Barstool Sportsbook)

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The post Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 10, 2022) appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 8, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sun, 08 May 2022 20:38:58 +0000

On Sunday night, the Sixers will take on the Miami Heat in Philadelphia in Game 4 of their second round NBA playoff series. The Sixers rebounded from two losses in Miami with a convincing Game 3 victory. Joel Embiid’s return, which was announced very shortly before tip, had a lot to do with the Sixers not only getting their first win of the series, but also making this series competitive.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 8, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 8, 2022)

Writing on deadline means exactly what it says — you have a moment where the work is due to post, and you have to do the best you can with the information at your disposal. Usually, that’s not a problem. On Friday night, though, it became a significant problem for this serial entry.

The Sixers were as much as a 3.5-point underdog most of Thursday and into Friday morning. Then the word emerged that Embiid had cleared concussion protocol, and the line froze for a time. Once the books had a chance to adjust, the Sixers were only getting 1.5 points. The line sat there for most of the day until, very close to game time, it became apparent that Embiid was again going to put on a mask and play. By that time, this piece was already up, and the pick was the Heat. Obviously, that didn’t work out.

Today, there’s a new problem: How do you assess Embiid’s capacity from Friday night’s game? He played 36 minutes, scored 18 points on 12 shots, and pulled down 11 rebounds. So his points were down, but his rebounds were in line with what he normally does. Were his points down because his vision was impaired by the mask? You would think not, since he made eight of his ten free throws, but of course that means he only scored 10 points from the field and, notably, did not attempt a three-point shot.

The uncertainty around Embiid doesn’t explicitly make this game a stay-away, but it does mean that even more than normal, caution is the watch word. The range of outcomes for Embiid is far wider than normal, and as we have seen, as Embiid goes, so go the Sixers.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -2 (-114), Heat +2 (-106)
Moneyline: Sixers -138, Heat +118
Total: 208

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 208 Total Points (+214, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Friday night’s game was far under because the Heat were atrocious. They scored 79 points, far below their season average. Only two Heat players scored in double figures. Meanwhile, the Sixers got 12 three-point field goals from Danny Green and Tyrese Maxey and still didn’t crack 100 points. The Heat are still a great defensive team, and Embiid is not apt to go back to scoring 30+ points in this game. So the pick here is under.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Sixers First Half -1 Point (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)

We won with this prop on Friday night and we are going with it again. The crowd in the Wells Fargo Center on Friday night was raucous and seemed to carry the Sixers for stretches of the game. With a line this close, stuff that normally doesn’t matter (like crowd noise) matters a lot.

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Joel Embiid Over 24.5 Points (-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Embiid scored 18 points after missing two games and while playing with a mask. He returns tonight still with the mask on but with his legs under him again. Whereas Embiid was used as something of a decoy at times on Friday night, and where the Sixers seemed to have to spoon feed him some of his opportunities, tonight Embiid projects to look a little bit more like himself.

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Matisse Thybulle Under 1.5 Rebounds (-149, FOX Bet)

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With so much attention focused on Embiid’s injuries, the story of Thybulle’s shocking decline has been largely overlooked. But the defensive specialist who flew around the court during the regular season putting up decent steals and rebounding numbers…that guy is gone. Thybulle looks shook, and this prop is informed by the fact that Thybulle probably won’t even get the 20 minutes of game time he got on Friday night. In 20 minutes, he didn’t have even one rebound.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

Unless the Heat lose not just tonight’s game but Game 5 as well, this will probably be the last time you will have the chance to take the better team at these odds in this series. Friday night was exciting, and it’s great that Game 4 is meaningful as opposed to being a death march. But the Sixers aren’t getting another monster game out of Danny Green, and the Heat aren’t going to shoot 35% from the field again.

Pick: Heat moneyline (+110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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The post Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 8, 2022) appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 6, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Fri, 06 May 2022 16:45:47 +0000

On Friday night, the Sixers are back home from a lost week in Miami, which happens to a lot of people. The Sixers are down 0-2 in their second round playoff series with the Heat. Joel Embiid was upgraded from out to doubtful for tonight’s pivotal Game 3 as of the 12:30PM injury report provided by the NBA. Embiid has reportedly cleared concussion protocol, and the resulting line movement suggests that Embiid might somehow be cleared to play tonight. But that’s probably a terrible idea.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 6, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 6, 2022)

Joel Embiid probably very much wants to return to action tonight. The Sixers would be making a foolish decision if they let him do so.

The second round of the playoffs has been the ceiling for the Sixers since the Process turned the corner and the Sixers became a consistent playoff qualifier. When James Harden arrived — and more importantly, when Ben Simmons left — a deeper playoff run seemed not only possible but likely. Had Embiid been healthy enough to play in this series, there is no telling what the Sixers could have done against this professional but unspectacular Heat squad.

But Embiid didn’t play in the first two games of this series, and now the only way for the Sixers to finally get to an Eastern Conference final is to beat the Heat four times in five tries, including at least one of the two remaining games (if necessary) in Miami. The Sixers wouldn’t reasonably be expected to be able to do that even if Embiid were healthy, which he definitely is not.

It also bears noting that even if Embiid is cleared and does play, that doesn’t mean that the MVP hopeful is the guy who will be on the court. He’ll almost certainly be wearing a mask, and he probably won’t be able to keep himself from being careful about, you know, taking another stray elbow to the face on the low block.

Embiid should not play in this series, a series which will probably end very quickly in his absence. It’s sad, and it’s disappointing. But the franchise has a bright short-term future largely because they have Joel Embiid. Putting him on the court as compromised as he is now, playoffs or not, would be unwise.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +1.5 (-108), Heat -1.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Sixers +108, Heat -126
Total: 210

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 210 Total Points (+273, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We don’t think the Sixers are going to win this game. We do think that, if they somehow pull this game out, it will be because they rode a raucous home crowd and hot three-point shooting to an unexpected win.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Sixers First Half -0.5 Points (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Sixers have trailed by at least seven points after the first quarter in both of the first two games in this series. It is difficult to see the Sixers winning a game in this series without Joel Embiid. Even if he suits up for Game 3, his performance will likely be limited. For one half, though? With the crowd behind them and at least theoretically playing desperately? Difficult, but not impossible.

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Tobias Harris Over 17.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Harris has gone over 17.5 points in both games in this series. He also did so in the series clincher against Toronto. Harris is averaging over 19 points per game over the eight playoff games this postseason.

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James Harden Double Double (-133, FOX Bet)

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Fair or not, this game will probably be seen as a mini-referendum on whether Harden can be a meaningful part of the Sixers’ plans in coming seasons. That should serve as motivation. Another thing that needs to be said here is that it’s not like Harden has been bad in these past eight playoff games. He has posted double doubles three times and missed two others by a single assist.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

The first two games in this series proved something that, deep down, Sixers fans already knew: without Embiid, this is probably not even a playoff team. Changing the venue from Miami to Philadelphia doesn’t suddenly make the Sixers better. Had the Sixers been able to add a fully healthy Embiid for Game 3, that would have made them a lot better. He’s doubtful as of this writing, though, and even if he plays, it’s unreasonable to think he’ll be nearly as effective as he was in most of the Toronto series.

Pick: Heat -2 (-112, Barstool Sportsbook)

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The post Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 6, 2022) appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (May 4, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Wed, 04 May 2022 18:35:04 +0000

On Wednesday night, the Sixers will be in Miami to take on the Heat in Game 2 of their second round NBA Playoffs series.

The Sixers competed hard in the first game of the series. After falling behind early, the Sixers made a few runs to make the game competitive. In the end, though, the Heat’s athletic and health advantages were telling. The Heat not only won, they covered 7.5 points fairly easily.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 4, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 4, 2022)

Time is undefeated. The Brooklyn Nets knew this when they traded an active James Harden to the Sixers for an inactive and highly-questionable Ben Simmons. The Sixers are seeing now what the Nets had already figured out.

Harden averaged 22 points and more than 10 assists during this past regular season. For much of the season, he was playing with Kevin Durant and occasionally Kyrie Irving. Durant and Irving score a lot. Assists sort of follow them around.

Then Harden came to Philadelphia. In Harden’s first three games as a Sixer (@ NYK, v. NYK, v. CLE), he did basically anything he wanted. Harden scored at least 25 points in all three of those games. He also averaged 12 assists per game in that short stretch.

As the regular season wound down, though, so did Harden’s numbers. He was never outright terrible, but he certainly wasn’t dominant. It was pretty apparent that enhanced competition could be problematic.

He had 14 points and nine assists at Phoenix on March 27. He had 18 points and seven assists in an inexcusable loss to the Detroit Pistons on March 31. That loss weighed heavily in relegating the Sixers to the fourth seed in the playoffs. He went 3-12 from the field and scored 13 points on April 7 in Toronto. Yet another loss that hurt the Sixers’ playoff positioning. Yeah, he had 15 assists…but that wasn’t enough for the Sixers to win the game.

In the playoffs, it’s been more of the same. Harden has good games (Game 1 against Toronto, 22/14/5) and bad games (Game 5 against Toronto, 15/7/2). The gulf between who Harden was in his elite years and who he is now was on full display in Game 1 against the Heat. Sixteen points, nine rebounds, five assists…in only 34 minutes, in a game where the Sixers needed him to dominate for long stretches with Joel Embiid injured.

The Sixers will probably do everything within strained reason to keep Harden here next season. Simmons was still an “asset.” The Sixers won’t want to explain how they traded a #1 overall pick for a third of a regular season and a likely second round playoff exit.

And if we’re being truthful, Harden is exceptional enough in a sufficient number of regular season contests to be worth keeping around. If Embiid and Maxey are healthy and the bench improves, next season could be fun.

Still, a big part of the reason that the Sixers made the Simmons trade was to acquire a player they thought could carry a team for a game, or two, or a series. On current evidence, it’s not clear that Harden is that player any more.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +8.5 (-110), Heat -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers +330, Heat -420
Total: 207.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 207.5 Total Points (+565, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We include this item in every preview. For this one, though, we have to say: Don’t do it. There’s a reason that the line on this is +565. You want to get frisky with the Sixers money line? Fine. That’s +330, and that’s plenty of return. Parlaying the over/under with the Sixers money line here is not the way to live.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Bam Adebayo Double Double (-130, Caesars Sportsbook)

Adebayo hit this prop relatively easily in Game 1 at -150 odds. Adebayo is not on the injury report. We have no explanation for why the odds on this prop improved after Game 1.

If Sixers head coach Doc Rivers had come out and said, “DeAndre Jordan can’t handle Adebayo, we’re going to try something else,” then maybe. But Rivers was adamant that Jordan is starting whether anyone thinks it’s a good idea or not. Bang this prop until further notice.

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Tobias Harris Under 19.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Harris was the best Sixer on the floor in Game 1 of this series. Harris showed more determination to try to will his team to a win than anyone had seen in quite a while. But the numbers never lie. Before Monday night, Harris hadn’t scored at least 20 points in any of his prior four games.

Recency bias will make people want to believe that Harris has “found something.” Hope is not a strategy.

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James Harden Under 9.5 Assists (-138, FOX Bet)

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As we alluded to above, Embiid’s absence is a serious problem for Embiid. Harden was getting a lot of simple chest pass assists when he played with Durant. Harden was also getting a lot of simple entry pass assists — and transition helpers — when Embiid was creating havoc against opposing defenses. The Sixers don’t have quite enough offensive firepower to give Harden the stat-padding assists he needs to hit this prop against a very good defensive team, on the road, in the playoffs.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

We can’t shake the feeling that what you saw Monday night was the Sixers’ best Embiid-less effort. Hope still remains that Embiid will return for at least one of the games in Philadelphia. Then again, if the Sixers lose Game 3 in Philadelphia after losing both games in Miami, the franchise would be committing active malpractice to risk Embiid’s health in Game 4. Regardless, nothing we saw in Game 1 indicates that the Sixers can win this game. It’s far more likely that they will suffer another gutty but convincing defeat.

Pick: Heat -8 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions (May 2, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Mon, 02 May 2022 18:23:08 +0000

On Monday night, the Sixers will be in Miami to take on the Heat in Game 1 of their second round NBA Playoffs series. The Heat eliminated the Atlanta Hawks in five games, with three of the wins coming by double digits. The Sixers looked to be on their way to blowing a 3-0 series lead against the Toronto Raptors until claiming a true Pyrrhic victory over the Raptors in Game 6 to advance.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this May 2, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (May 2, 2022)

Pascal Siakam is probably going to walk away from the Game 6 cheap shot that has put Joel Embiid on the sidelines indefinitely at a terrible time. It’s aggravating, but there are too many reasons why Siakam is never going to suffer a consequence for what he did.

Money is the biggest reason. In this modern era, players are making way too much money to risk a suspension by retaliating against Siakam the next time the Sixers face him. For that matter, a retaliatory act would just invite another one, and so the player sticking up for Embiid could get hurt himself.

Embiid is probably not going to go out of his way to exact revenge on Siakam for the same reasons. Besides, by the time Embiid and Siakam face each other again, months will have passed and presumably Embiid will be fully healed.

The timing of Siakam’s act also comes into play here. The Raptors don’t have any more games to play this season. Suspending Siakam (which we haven’t seen seriously discussed anyway) at the beginning of next season for something he did months prior will look and seem pointless.

Make no mistake, though: Siakam walking away from this incident totally unscathed is a terrible look for the NBA. Embiid had an MVP-caliber season and led his team to a playoff series win playing with a torn ligament in his thumb. The league would doubtlessly prefer that Embiid could play as many games in this series as possible, starting with Game 1, which Embiid will miss due to the injuries Siakam inflicted on him, including an orbital fracture and concussion.

And what a break for the Heat, who will be without Kyle Lowry in Game 1 and who have Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and P.J. Tucker listed as questionable. All three of them are probably going to play, but their effectiveness will be in question. Playing the Sixers without Embiid is exactly what the Heat needed in this spot.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +7.5 (-110), Heat -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers +260, Heat -320
Total: 208.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 208.5 Total Points (+515, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We don’t like the Sixers in this spot, but if they are going to win this game it is going to have to happen with James Harden, Tyrese Maxeyb and Tobias Harris all scoring more than 20 points. For that matter, the Sixers will need some spectacular three-point shooting from the likes of Danny Green and Georges Niang. This is probably too much of an ask against the Heat, who held opponents to 105.6 points per game this season, the fourth-best defense in the league as measured by opposition points allowed.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Bam Adebayo Double Double (-150, Caesars Sportsbook)

Adebayo averaged 19.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game in the regular season and posted two double doubles in five games against the Hawks in that series. Without Embiid, the Sixers are stuck either playing small or relying on DeAndre Jordan, Paul Reed, and maybe even Charles Bassey to try to slow Adebayo down. Adebayo might hit this prop in three quarters.

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Jimmy Butler Over 23.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Butler only played In 57 games in the regular season. The Sixers probably factored in not only Butler’s age, but also his high mileage when considering whether to keep him in Philadelphia. It’s not clear that Butler really wanted to stay with the Sixers anyway, but the time Butler missed this season makes the $184 million extension he signed last summer look sort of iffy. None of that matters tonight, though. Butler averaged over 30 points per game in the four games he played in the Hawks series, and with Embiid missing tonight, Butler’s path to the basket is going to be more open than it was against the Hawks.

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James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-125, FOX Bet)

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In the six games against the Raptors, Harden had double digit assists three times and averaged just over 10 assists in the series. The loss of Embiid for Game 1 is not helpful for this prop, but it’s highly likely that the Sixers’ game plan tonight is to run most of the offense through Harden. The Sixers don’t have to win or even score prolifically for Harden to get 10 assists in this game.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

Some late money has come in on the Sixers and the points in the last 36 hours, as the spread has dropped a full point. The Sixers still have three reasonable scoring threats in Harden, Maxey, and Harris, and as noted above, the Heat tend to play low-scoring games. Those factors suggest that the Sixers can hang around in this game. We don’t see it, though. The Sixers expended significant energy in Game 6 against the Raptors and lost their superstar indefinitely in the end. The Heat are too professional and too well-coached not to step on the Sixers’ necks in this spot.

Pick: Heat -7.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions (April 28, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Thu, 28 Apr 2022 16:14:54 +0000

On Thursday night, the Sixers will be back in Toronto for Game 6 of their first round NBA playoff series with the Raptors. After winning the first three games of the series, the Sixers have almost completely fallen apart in the past two games to bring the Raptors back into it. The energy around the Sixers, so positive when they were up 3-0, is anything but positive right now.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 28, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 28, 2022)

It’s time to have the conversation about the difference between being hurt and being injured.

Joel Embiid sustained a torn ligament in his right thumb in the first half of Game 3 of this series. The injury is significant enough to require surgical repair once the season is over. Embiid is playing through the injury for, we have to speculate, several reasons.

Pretty clearly, the Sixers would struggle to win a playoff game (much less any series) without Embiid. From a personal standpoint, Embiid probably feels like ending what was an MVP-caliber season with a first round playoff exit would tarnish the whole campaign. Also, professional athletes have pain tolerance that normal people don’t fully comprehend. A torn ligament in a thumb would reduce most bloggers to voice-to-text.

The trouble is, Embiid is playing, but he’s not playing as well as he is capable of, and the change in his game is noticeable. Multiple entry passes to Embiid on Monday night led to him holding the ball, not liking the shot he had, and kicking it back out. Every time that happened, the shot clock depleted quickly and the Sixers were left taking rushed and/or contested shots from distance. Embiid still had a double double, but it wasn’t very impactful. In a potential elimination game at home, Embiid only got to the free throw line six times.

So is he hurt, where he can play? Or is he injured, where he really ought to sit? There is a thrum around this series now. Only three teams have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs to even force Game 7, and none of them won. If the Raptors win the next two games, it won’t be James Harden or Tobias Harris or Doc Rivers who wears this. It will be Embiid.

Sadly, if Embiid plays through pain in Game 6 (and Game 7 if necessary) and the Sixers don’t get out of this series, the label will be “choker,” not “team leader who played through injury.” That’s just the difference between winning and losing throughout history.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -1.5 (-110), Raptors +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -120, Raptors +102
Total: 209.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 209.5 Total Points (+231, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The totals in the last four games of this series were 209, 205, 212 and 191. The under has been very profitable, which explains why the over/under keeps going lower. Monday night was a low point for the Sixers, as they shot 38% from the field. Ultimately, if the Sixers are going to win this game and avoid a legitimately terrifying Game 7, they’ll probably do it by hitting a lot of shots and taking the Raptors’ crowd out of the game.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James Harden Double Double (-135, Caesars Sportsbook)

Recency bias does strange things to betting lines. Prior to the past two games of this series, Harden had posted double doubles in seven of his prior eight games. That means he has posted a double double in seven of his past ten games, which is still pretty reliable. Harden has had two poor games in a row. This is a “back of the bubblegum card” pick. Harden is better than he has shown lately.

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Joel Embiid Under 27.5 Points (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

There is no argument, none, for taking the over here. Embiid hasn’t scored more than 21 points in each of the last two games since sustaining his injury, and he’s still hurt. Overall, he’s scored 21 points or fewer in three of the five games in this series. Additionally, while it’s disappointing to think about, if the Sixers get down big in this game, Embiid will be the first guy Rivers takes off the floor in an attempt to save him for Game 7.

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Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 Points (-110, FOX Bet)

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Siakam missed his over by one or two points on Monday night (depending on where you had it). That doesn’t keep him from being great value in this spot. In Siakam’s past five home games, Siakam has averaged 28.6 points per game.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

This looks so obvious. There is blood in the water around the Sixers, and much of that blood is flowing from self-inflicted wounds. The Raptors very obviously think that they are in this series, and they’re right. If this series had just gone with the home teams holding serve to this point, the narrative would be “this is a great series” instead of “wow, look at this gag job the Sixers are doing.” What all of this leads to is that the Sixers — despite everything we’ve talked about here — are still not only favored to win the series, they’re favored in this game. We’re not laying points, but we’re not going to run with the prevailing narrative, either.

Pick: Sixers moneylne (-121, Barstool Sportsbook)

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The post Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions (April 28, 2022) appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Major League Baseball’s Angel Hernandez Problem is Bigger Than “He Sucks”

Philip Keidel — Tue, 26 Apr 2022 12:00:03 +0000

Umpires and referees are doing the best possible job when you don’t notice that they’re there. By that metric, Angel Hernandez had one of the worst possible games an umpire can have Sunday night, in one of the worst possible settings.

Had Hernandez trotted out this absurd performance on a Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, it’s possible that no one notices or cares. Instead, Hernandez did this on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball:

Umpire Angel Hernandez was the lowest rated umpire on the day, missing 19 calls for a correct percentage of 85.3%.

He rang up 6 batters on pitches that were outside the zone and called a strike to Jean Segura that missed inside by a season high 6.47 inches.#Brewers #Phillies pic.twitter.com/pmmt1ELJJ6

— Umpire Auditor (@UmpireAuditor) April 25, 2022

Hernandez being a terrible umpire is not news. He lost a lawsuit against Major League Baseball two short years ago largely because MLB had the data to show that Hernandez was impermissibly inept. That timing is important. The sports world in the United States was vastly different in March of 2021.

Online wagering on sports continues to become legal throughout the United States on a gradual basis. In the past two years, a number of prominent states have allowed sports betting to be done with your phone, your tablet, your laptop, whatever. Every Major League Baseball game is offered by online books. The types of bets you can place are way too numerous to list, but last night, if you had Eric Lauer’s strikeout over or Aaron Nola’s strikeout over, you almost certainly cashed.

And that’s the problem. Sports betting relies, perhaps too heavily, on the premise that everything you see is on the level. Serious players know that there is leakage in the form of umpires having “an off night” or a player having an undisclosed injury. Those are the elements bettors cannot control which they nonetheless accept as part of the game.

But having an umpire who is demonstrably, objectively, and persistently terrible at calling balls and strikes working dozens of MLB games behind the plate annually means that, basically, those games are really dangerous to put a play on. If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll take their word for it:

Note to self: Do not bet on games where Angel Hernandez is the umpire https://t.co/9POXqixmem

— br_betting (@br_betting) April 25, 2022

To say nothing of the thing that MLB must be marginally terrified of, which is the potential for an umpire to place wagers on his own games through a proxy and directly control the outcome of the wagers he is making. Specifically, the starting pitcher strikeout prop is offered in almost every game.

Hernandez is probably above suspicion for Sunday night because he was so poor that no competent bad actor would make the grift so obvious. He is, however, a glaring example of why MLB has to do something about terrible umpiring. Hernandez isn’t the only bad umpire in the game today, and given what is at stake, they all have to go.

And there’s a way to do it fairly. MLB is already tracking umpire performance. We know this because they use that data to make playoff and World Series assignments, you know, like the ones Hernandez didn’t get. That data doesn’t play favorites. If you can use that data to reward good umpires, you can certainly use it to demote or outright dismiss the worst of them.

Incompetent umpiring almost surely cost plenty of bettors untold sums before sports betting was legalized online. Most of those bets were illegal, so it was hard to feel much sympathy for the losers. With sports gambling now being not only legal but prevalent, MLB cannot jeopardize its relationship with sports books and bettors by keeping the likes of Angel Hernandez on its payroll.

Uncertainty is part of the fun of sports gambling. When uncertainty devolves into sheer randomness, as it did last night, fun is no longer part of the equation.

The post Major League Baseball’s Angel Hernandez Problem is Bigger Than “He Sucks” appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 25, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Mon, 25 Apr 2022 18:42:09 +0000

On Monday night, the Sixers return home for Game 5 of their first round NBA Playoffs series with the Toronto Raptors. The Sixers missed out on a chance for the sweep on Saturday afternoon, but still hold a 3-1 series lead.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 25, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 25, 2022)

Being a Sixers fan means knowing that disaster is always a bad bounce, a blown lead or a fluke injury away. Sixers fans are now fretting the right thumb injury of Joel Embiid, which is variously described as a ligament tear and a sprain, one of which sounds devastating and the other of which just sounds like an annoyance. Either way, Embiid was clearly limited in Game 4 on Saturday, and so there is a pall both on this series and a probable second round series against the Miami Heat.

Short term, though, the Sixers are still -5000 to win this first round series. Mostly, that is because the 3-1 series lead with two more home games left means that the Raptors have to win in Philadelphia twice to win the series when you may remember that they were pretty well blown out of both games here at the beginning of the series.

Another reason for that -5000 line is that the Raptors have their own injury issues. Scottie Barnes came back from the sidelines to play 26 minutes on Saturday, but he’s clearly still not 100%. Fred VanVleet left Saturday’s game with a left hip strain. The Raptors probably aren’t deep enough to beat a better team if they aren’t at full strength.

So the Sixers have plenty of motivation to finish this series tonight. Some rest for Embiid’s hand would be nice. And the thought of losing two straight and having to go back to Toronto for a Game 6…literally, let’s not go there.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -7.5 (-110), Raptors +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -330, Raptors +265
Total: 210

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 210 Total Points (+220, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The total keeps shrinking with every game that passes in this series, and the reasons for that are many and obvious. The Raptors were a very good defensive team in the regular season, and aside from an outright poor showing in Game 1 of the series they have continued to make scoring difficult for the Sixers. Totals in the last three games were 209, 205 and 212. Toss in the limitations to Embiid and VanVleet tonight, and the likelihood of these teams combining for more than 210 points seems low.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Tobias Harris Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

The knocks from Sixers fans on Harris are that he is overpaid and that he shrinks from big situations. Harris has answered his critics (probably not thinking much about them anyway) with a very solid series thus far against the Raptors. Did you know that Harris has posted a double double in each of the past three games? We don’t recommend taking him for that tonight (it’s +290 if you can’t help yourself). The rebounding numbers are real, though, especially with Embiid’s injury making him a bit more reticent to retrieve misses.

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Joel Embiid Under 28.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Embiid’s injury is driving this total down, obviously, and it makes sense. A player with a bum hand is probably going to take fewer shots and may not have the same desire to get to the free throw line, where the injury to the shooting hand will probably have its biggest impact. More than anything, though, this under is fueled by the fact that the Raptors have held Embiid to 21 points or fewer twice already in this series, and he was more or less healthy before.

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Pascal Siakam Over 23.5 Points (-110, FOX Bet)

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Siakam has had a decent series thus far, and his 34 points on Saturday were a big factor in this series still being a thing. Looking back further, though, we see that Siakam’s scoring has spiked toward the end of the season. In his last 15 games including this series, Siakam has scored at least 24 points nine times and in two of the other games he had 23 and 22. None of that makes this pick a lock, but it suggests value that might not be obvious.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

Tonight we find out whether it really was (as Embiid suggested) a league imperative to keep this series from being a sweep on Saturday via some gently slanted officiating (the Raptors shot 10 more free throws in Game 4). If the whistle goes back to being even or, as it was early in the series, favors the Sixers, seven and a hook may not be enough for the Raptors.

Pick: Sixers -7.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 23, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sat, 23 Apr 2022 17:27:02 +0000

On Saturday night, the Sixers will be in Toronto for Game 4 of their first round NBA Playoffs series. The Sixers have won each of the first three games in the series and would like nothing better than to finish the series in four games and earn some needed rest in advance of the second round. The Raptors, conversely, are first focused on not getting swept in their own building. They can’t win four games in this series if they never win one.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 23, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 23, 2022)

The way it looks, this series isn’t going to last long enough to work up anything like real animus against the Toronto Raptors.

We have said this whole series that the Raptors are a team full of good-to-very good players that lacks anything resembling a superstar. Meanwhile, the Sixers have a superstar on the slight decline in James Harden and a megastar on the sharp ascendancy in Joel Embiid. There has been some buzz around how annoying Raptors coach Nick Nurse’s bitching at the referees has been, but then that’s any coach whose team is losing. Nurse isn’t anything new or special in that regard.

A sweep would be welcome on many fronts, but especially with reference to content involving the Raptors. There just isn’t a lot to say about the Raptors. They’re young, they play hard, they are pretty well coached…and that’s about it. They don’t have a special talent on the roster. They also don’t have any lightning rod personalities, or even sort of interesting personalities. They’re just sort of there. The most interesting thing the Raptors have done in the entire series is commit a bunch of borderline cheap shot fouls early in Game 3, and even that wasn’t especially compelling.

If the Raptors win Game 4, we’ll reconvene here to preview Game 5. If that does happen, let’s hope we have something interesting to discuss from Game 4. Because so far, this series has been only sort of competitive and, in too many ways, non-descript.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -3 (-110), Raptors +3 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -150, Raptors +130
Total: 213.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 213.5 Total Points (+218, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We think the Raptors are just about finished. Yes, that sounds obvious given the 0-3 hole that they are in, but it’s more than that. It’s not like the Raptors have been especially unlucky in this series so far. They were beaten pretty soundly in both of the first two games in the series, and they were the architects of their own downfall in Game 3 with so many missed free throws and empty trips late in the game. There is a nonzero chance that the Raptors lose this game by 20+ and don’t sniff 100 points.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 31.5 Points (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Raptors had held Embiid to 31 points or fewer in four straight games prior to Wednesday night, when the triple that Embiid hit to win the game in overtime also took him from under 32.5 to over 32.5 Meaningful shot for many! Anyway, the Raptors still don’t have anyone who can realistically handle Embiid one on one, and Embiid already told Drake he’s coming for the sweep after the Game 3 win.

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Tobias Harris Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We like this one quite a bit. Harris has embraced his supporting role behind Embiid, Harden and even to a degree Tyrese Maxey by using his length to clean up around the rim. Harris has 28 rebounds in the three games in the series and has had double digit rebounds in each of the past two games. Seven rebounds isn’t a given, but it’s super-attainable.

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OG Anunoby Over 19.5 Points (-105, FOX Bet)

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Anunoby has been Toronto’s most productive player in this series, which maybe isn’t saying a whole lot given that his team is a game from being swept out of the first round of the playoffs. Hard to blame Anunoby, though. He has scored at least 20 points in each of the first three games of this series and had 26 points in both Game 2 and Game 3. The Raptors don’t have a superstar, but Anunoby has looked like one in this series if you squinted hard enough.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

“But that’s a Raptors line,” we hear you saying. Can’t argue with you. This line should rightfully be Sixers -5 or even -6. The Sixers have won the first three games of the series, two of them quite comfortably, and certainly did not lack intensity on Wednesday night. The Raptors are almost down to the “playing for pride” motivation, such is the depth of the hole they are in. We don’t know why the line isn’t bigger, either. We just don’t think the Raptors as constructed have enough to win this game, especially if they get down early.

Pick: Sixers -3 (-109, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 20, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Wed, 20 Apr 2022 17:41:44 +0000

On Wednesday night, the Sixers cross the border (minus Matisse Thybulle) to face the Toronto Raptors in the third game of their first round NBA playoff series. The Sixers manhandled the Raptors on Monday night to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 20, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 20, 2022)

By now you have probably seen the clip of Joel Embiid telling Raptors head coach Nick Nurse that, in effect, the Raptors have no one who can do anything to stop Embiid, and Nurse (looking at the same time frazzled and resigned to his fate) nodding and saying “I know.”

Nurse has won an NBA title, so he’s consistently going to get the benefit of the doubt with anything he does. The Embiid/Nurse exchange was Embiid’s response to Nurse spending all day Monday and the entire game complaining to the referees about foul calls Embiid was getting. Baiting, cajoling and whining to referees is part of an NBA coach’s job. And what else was Nurse going to do? He truly does not have anyone on his active roster who can do anything to stop Embiid other than hacking him and hoping the whistle doesn’t sound.

Still, you kind of wonder what sort of effect that Embiid/Nurse exchange had (and will have) on the Raptors. If it went down as reported, Nurse effectively admitted to Embiid and to the world that the Raptors are playing this series constantly running uphill, knowing that whatever they do, Embiid is going to get his way. The Raptors’ only chance is to have two of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris struggle on the same night. That has not happened in this series to this point.

The Raptors figure to be a “desperate” team tonight, and the Raptors (who draw really well) will have a motivated, spiteful, bitter home crowd behind them. But all of those fans saw what the Raptors players saw two nights ago: Nurse doesn’t have any real answer for Embiid. Imagine going to work knowing your boss had already publicly identified a weakness in your performance that cannot be papered over and cannot be overcome.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -2 (-114), Raptors +2 (-106)
Moneyline: Sixers -134, Raptors +114
Total: 217

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 217 Total Points (+223, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mind you, we don’t think the Sixers are winning this one, but if they are going to win it will be because somehow the officials continue to put Embiid and Harden on the free throw line the way they did in Philadelphia. Seems unlikely.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Under 32.5 Points (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Raptors have not given up more than 31 points to Embiid (that’s what he had Monday) in four straight games. People are going to continue to hammer the over on this prop because they have fond memories of Embiid hanging 40 pieces on bad teams in the regular season. Up 2-0 in this playoff series, on the road, Nurse having aired the officials out…Embiid won’t get the calls he needs tonight.

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Fred VanVleet Under 21.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

In the beginning of Monday night’s game, it looked like VanVleet was going to have one of those unconscious scoring nights where, despite being a 20-points-per-game scorer in the regular season, he’d go off for 30 or more. Here’s the thing, though. Those guys know when they’re running ahead of their scoring pace. By the second quarter, VanVleet’s jump shot cooled off, and he was largely ineffective in the second half. VanVleet is good for 18 tonight, but not 22.

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Pascal Siakam Double Double (-133, FOX Bet)

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Siakam has posted a double double in three of his last four games against the Sixers, including a triple double on April 7. With Scottie Barnes doubtful, the Raptors will again be leaning heavily on Siakam to carry the scoring and rebounding load.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

This series isn’t over, but late in the third quarter (before a dead cat bounce surge that made the game score respectable) the Raptors looked like they wanted no further part of the Sixers. Professional athletes, more than most athletes, recognize when they are simply outgunned and outmanned. So the Sixers are very likely to win this series, but the NBA doesn’t make a lot of money off first round sweeps. The whistle is going to be very friendly for the Raptors tonight, and you can almost see the “we have a series!” pieces being written late tonight in advance of Saturday’s 30-point Sixers win to go up 3-1.

Pick: Raptors moneyline (+107, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 18, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Mon, 18 Apr 2022 19:30:53 +0000

On Monday night, the Sixers will take on the Toronto Raptors in Game 2 of their first round NBA playoff series. The Sixers won Game 1 handily, and suddenly the Raptors have about as close to a must-win game as a team can have this early in a series. If the Raptors cannot find a way to win tonight, it’s nearly impossible to imagine that they could win four of the final five games of the series, including at least one in Philadelphia.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 18, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 18, 2022)

What a difference a day makes. In this case, that day was Saturday.

Before Game 1 of this series, the Raptors were +150 to advance to the second round. Those odds made the Raptors one of the strongest underdogs from an odds perspective in the entire playoff field. Yes, the Sixers had managed to duck the Brooklyn Nets, but the Raptors were nowhere as limited or weak as, say, the Chicago Bulls or the Atlanta Hawks. What had they really done?

Then the Sixers blasted the Raptors in a game where both Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. sustained injuries. Barnes is out for Game 2. Trent Jr. is doubtful, which means that even if he plays, his effectiveness will be in significant question. Odds on the Raptors to get out of this series are now +340, while the Sixers are -475.

Meanwhile, last night, the Nets pushed the Boston Celtics to the last second in Game 1 of their series, and that series looks like it could easily go seven games. Even down 0-1, the Nets are +180 to make it to the second round.

Maybe the Sixers knew what they were doing all along! Yeah, no, we don’t believe that, either. But you take the breaks when you get them.

We’ve outlined our best betting picks below, including a number of promos available from legal online sportsbooks. For a deeper dive on each offer, be sure to check out our picks for the four best Raptors vs. Sixers betting promos.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -7.5 (-112), Raptors +7.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Sixers -335, Raptors +270
Total: 215.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 215.5 Total Points (+139, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trent Jr. and Barnes combined to average 33.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game in the regular season. We noted before the series started that the Raptors are the classic “whole is greater than the sum of the parts” group. That proved true in Game 1, as four Raptors finished in double figures but none of them scored more than 24 points. With Barnes and Trent out, the Raptors are going to have to try to win this game ugly, and that means slowing the pace and relying on defense. We don’t think the Raptors can win the game, but we do think they can take some of the air out of the ball.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Under 32.5 Points (-130, Caesars Sportsbook)

Embiid scored 19 points on 5-15 shooting from the field on Saturday night. That made it three straight games where the Raptors have held Embiid to 30 or fewer points. With the injuries they have, the Raptors cannot afford to employ a “let Embiid get his and try to stop everybody else” strategy, because Embiid could get 50 if you don’t keep throwing the house at him.

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James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are as bored of giving this prop as you are of playing it, but it keeps winning. Harden had 14 assists on Saturday night in a game where the Raptors were, by and large, healthy. Tonight, Harden might get to run a lot of minutes against backups. Harden should be able to get the ball wherever he wants it to go in this game.

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OG Anunoby Over 17.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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Someone is going to have to try to go off for the Raptors tonight in the confirmed absence of Barnes and the likely absence of Trent Jr. Anunoby averaged 17.1 points in the regular season and scored 20 on Saturday night. He is going to get a few extra looks tonight, and another 20+ point game is likely.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

The Sixers lost a number of games this season in situations where their opponents were missing players due to injury because the Sixers played down to the competition. But the regular season is such a slog, some of those losses just happen. The Sixers have a chance to put the Raptors — the team that ended their playoff run three seasons ago — up against the wall, in the corner, pick whatever cliche you want. The Raptors are already too wounded to fight back the way many of us thought they would before the series began.

Pick: Sixers -7.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 16, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sat, 16 Apr 2022 14:08:03 +0000

On Saturday night, the Sixers will open their first round NBA playoff series against the Toronto Raptors at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers finished the regular season 51-31 and are the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors posted a 48-34 record to earn the fifth seed. The Sixers open the series as a -180 favorite to advance to the second round. Toronto is +150 to move on past this series.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 16, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 16, 2022)

They did it! The Sixers did it! They managed to avoid the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the playoffs! Well done everyone.

Except, to do that, they had to fall all the way to fourth in the conference, which means: A) they will probably only have home court for one playoff round (assuming they get past the Raptors), and B) they weren’t lucky enough to be able to pick on one of the weaker teams in the first round (here’s looking at you, Chicago Bulls).

The Sixers’ reward for winning 51 games is the equivalent of an inexpensive birthday gift purchased in a hurry on the donor’s way to the party. The Raptors won the season series 3-1. They eliminated the Sixers from the playoffs just three short years ago, when The Process still felt like it was on the ascendancy.

A lot can happen in three years, though. The trust behind The Process was to accumulate enough assets and lose enough games to be awarded high draft picks with the end result being a young, star-laden roster. After all of that losing, the 2021-2022 Sixers ended the season with two stars. One is James Harden, who will turn 33 this summer and whose best basketball is almost certainly behind him. The other is Joel Embiid, who is 28 and who plays about 60 games every season.

Also, head coach Doc Rivers has three years left on his contract.

Maybe it’s just us, but the current state of the Sixers has the feel of one of those movies where the protagonist senses real trouble ahead but is ultimately powerless to do anything about it.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -4 (-110), Raptors +4 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -178, Raptors +150
Total: 216

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 216 Total Points (+181, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Raptors finished the season seventh in the NBA in defense as measured by opponents points per game (107.1). At the same time, they did not bowl anyone over offensively, finishing 20th in the league (109.4 points per game). Matisse Thybulle is ineligible to play in any of the games in Toronto, and so you’d have to think he will be as active as he can be in the first two games of this series. Under.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Under 33.5 Points (-130, Caesars Sportsbook)

Embiid’s season was worthy of the Most Valuable Player award. The Raptors know this, and will do everything up to and including occasionally triple-teaming Embiid to get the ball out of his hands. Embiid was held to 30 or fewer points in two of the three games he played against the Raptors this season. Not coincidentally, one of those games was in late March and the other was a week and a half ago.

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James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This prop selection is basically a backhanded compliment. The Raptors are going to spend a lot of the night forcing the ball out of Embiid’s hands. Conversely, given Harden’s pretty spotty playoff record, Harden is going to spend a lot of the night finding ways to get the ball out of his own hands. In so doing, he will rack up some assists. We will see if they are nutritious for the Sixers, or merely empty calories.

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Fred VanVleet Under 18.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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The Raptors are an underwhelming group on paper because they don’t have a superstar, and they haven’t since Kawhi Leonard left. What the Raptors have is five guys who score at least 15 points per game. They’re a classic “whole greater than the sum of the parts” team. The Raptors are unlikely to want this game to be all that high-scoring, and they aren’t going to mess with the formula of sharing the scoring load nearly equally in the first game of the series.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

After Larry Holmes knocked out Muhammad Ali, who should never have been allowed to fight Holmes in the first place given Ali’s advanced age, Holmes said (paraphrasing) that Ali wasn’t better than Holmes just because Ali talked better. Well, the Sixers aren’t better than the Raptors just because they have Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Raptors’ moneyline is tempting, but home court might be just enough to get the Sixers by in this game. Just.

Pick: Raptors +4.5 (+114, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Pistons Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 10, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sun, 10 Apr 2022 17:54:21 +0000

On Sunday night, the Sixers will wrap up the regular season against the Detroit Pistons. The Sixers clinched home court advantage in the first round with yesterday’s win over the Indiana Pacers. If the Boston Celtics beat the Memphis Grizzlies today, the Sixers will face the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the NBA playoffs regardless of the outcome of this game with the Pistons.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Pistons betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 10, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Pistons Betting Pick (April 10, 2022)

This was a strange Sixers season, which is really saying something given the team’s often bizarre history.

Notable happenings in the season included but are not limited to:

COVID-19 impacted several of the games in the early part of the season. Joel Embiid missed nine games. Tobias Harris missed six games. It’s impossible not to wonder whether their absences during those games are the difference between, say, the second seed in the conference playoffs and their likely fourth seed.
Ben Simmons never played one minute for the Sixers this season. After being traded, Simmons didn’t play a minute for his new team, either. Regardless, the way Simmons’ Sixers career ended was something none of us had ever seen before.
James Harden made a splashy entrance, and has played for the most part at the level he was playing at for the Nets. But Harden’s playoff record is fairly woeful, and if the Sixers fail to proceed past the second round of the playoffs (again), it will be interesting to see what the Sixers do with Harden, or what they don’t do with him.
Embiid carried the Sixers for long stretches of the season and, in a world without Nikola Jokic, Embiid would be the consensus Most Valuable Player in the league. Presently, though, Jokic seems likely to win the award, and if Embiid never has a season this great again, he may be left to rue how close he came this time.
Head coach Doc Rivers is in the second year of his five-year contract, and already there are Sixers fans concerned about Rivers’ unusual rotations and, as with Harden, past playoff shortcomings.

If the Sixers beat the Pistons, they will finish with a record of 51-31. That’s supposed to be cause for excitement. If we’re all being truthful, though, the Sixers are demonstrably worse than the three teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings (Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics) and they might not be as good as the Raptors. A win tonight would be nice, but it won’t fix what’s broken.

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Sixers vs. Pistons Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Pistons at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -9.5 (-110), Pistons +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -460, Pistons +360
Total: 225.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 225.5 Total Points (+131, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Sixers are scoring points in bushels, and their only chance to pull themselves above the fourth seed is to win this game and get some help. In the Pistons’ past two games, both against playoff teams, the Pistons gave up 131 points apiece to the Bucks and the Dallas Mavericks.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 34.5 Points (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

Embiid may not win the MVP, but it’s pretty clear that he isn’t going down without a real fight. Embiid has scored over 40 points in three of his last four games, and at least 37 in five of the past eight.

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Under 58.5 Points Total First Quarter (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Sixers are playing the second half of a home back-to back and, as of this writing, Embiid is the only player the books have player props on offer for. In every professional sport, the last game of the regular season is often wonky in terms of who plays, who doesn’t, for how long, etc. So the first quarter projects to be a little unsettled.

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Sixers to Win Both First and Second Quarters (-120, FOX Bet)

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One of the most damaging losses of the season came at Detroit a week and a half ago. The Pistons have fallen back into losing ways since then, and the revenge factor for the Sixers should be pretty high. Additionally, this will probably be the easiest game that this Sixers group will play for the rest of this season. They might as well have some fun while they still can.

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Sixers vs. Pistons Prediction

With so much uncertainty surrounding who will play in this game (and who will not), and with the Sixers playing the second half of a back-to-back, there isn’t a basis to lay the points here. If you absolutely, positively have to have action on this game, you should probably pay the tax.

Pick: Sixers moneyline (-455, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Pacers Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 9, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sat, 09 Apr 2022 13:13:12 +0000

On Saturday afternoon, the Sixers will host the Indiana Pacers in the second-to-last 2021-2022 regular season game for each team. The Sixers will be playing after this weekend. The Pacers will not.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Pacers betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 9, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Pacers Betting Pick (April 9, 2022)

You almost want to feel bad for the Pacers, who lost to this same Sixers team on Tuesday night and have been idle since then waiting for this game. The Pacers are the epitome of a team playing out the string. The line (14 or 14.5 depending on where you get it) indicates how little the Pacers have to play for.

There isn’t much more to say about the Sixers’ regular season. They are heavily favored today. They will be heavily favored against the Detroit Pistons tomorrow. That would be a 51-31 season, which is almost precisely what they were predicted to do before the regular season started. — their over/under was 50.5 or 51.5 wins, again depending on where you got it. Feels like an awful lot of time and energy expended to end up right where they were projected to be.

The only other notable thing about today’s game is that it’s one of four home games for Philadelphia teams being played today. The Sixers tip off at 1:00 p.m. The Phillies’ first pitch against the Oakland A’s is set for 4:05 p.m. The Union host the Columbus Crew at 6:00 p.m. The Flyers, fittingly, bring up the rear with a 7:30 puck drop against the Anaheim Ducks in a game that projects to have the lowest attendance of the four. The schedule makers in these leagues did the fans exactly no favors today — if you’re going to one of these games, leave early and pack your patience.

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Sixers vs. Pacers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Pacers at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -14.5 (-110), Pacers +14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -1200, Pacers +750
Total: 235

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 235 Total Points (+107, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Five days ago, the Sixers beat the Pacers 131-122. The Pacers are still a terrible defensive team, and they still have nothing to play for today. At this point in the season, the system is as follows: If both teams are trying, bet the under. If one of the teams is not trying, bet the over. The Sixers will probably try pretty hard today. The Pacers, probably not.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 34.5 Points (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)

Grab the Embiid over today for two reasons. The first is that the Pacers don’t have anyone who can effectively guard Embiid, as evidenced by the 45 points he put up against them five days ago. The second is that, depending on what happens in other games around the league tomorrow, it is possible that the Sixers could choose to hold Embiid out of the last game of the season to preserve him for the playoffs. This would especially be true if losing the game gave the Sixers what they consider a more favorable first round playoff matchup.

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Pacers Over 110.5 Total Points (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Pacers haven’t won enough games to make this game matter to them, but they are still working pretty hard on the offensive end. This is probably a function of guys trying to put together some splashy highlights — particularly the players who won’t be back in Indiana next season. The Pacers have scored at least 117 points in each of their last five games.

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Sixers First Half -8.5 (-118, FOX Bet)

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The Sixers jumped all over the Pacers in the first half on Tuesday night, punctuated by a 49-point second quarter. And that was a road game. The Sixers will be motivated to put the Pacers away as quickly as possible. They have less reason than normal to want to play down to their competition today.

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Sixers vs. Pacers Prediction

These college football lines in NBA games are gross, but it’s the time of the season. We don’t trust the Sixers to lay two touchdowns to anyone. And yes, this is the sort of game where it’s fine to have some action, but moderation is called for. The Pacers could get dominated, never really be in the game, and still cover 14 points.

Pick: Pacers +14 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 7, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Thu, 07 Apr 2022 17:24:47 +0000

On Thursday night, the Sixers will visit the Toronto Raptors. It will be the 80th game of the season for each team. The Sixers are 49-30 and tied with the Milwaukee Bucks for third in the Eastern Conference. If the season ended today, the Sixers and the Raptors would meet in the first round of the playoffs.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 7, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 7, 2022)

It’s impossible to know what to hope for with the Sixers tonight.

The Sixers’ final two games will be home to the Indiana Pacers (25-55) and also home for the Detroit Pistons (23-57). It feels safe to project both of those games as wins. It appears that the Sixers have, for the moment, taken one of their bogey teams off the possible first round dance card.

The Brooklyn Nets are going to be in the play-in, and the two teams that survive the play-in will be paired with the top two seeds in the conference. If the Celtics lose to the Bucks tonight, it could get weird. If the standings hold, though, the Sixers will face either the Bulls or the Raptors in the first round. Does that feel safe? You know, maybe, sort of.

Eventually, though, the Sixers won’t be able to count on other results or seeding fluctuations to save them. Eventually, the Sixers are going to have to deal with the Celtics, the Bucks, the Heat, or the Nets. Do you think they can win a series against any of those four teams? Really? REALLY?

Maybe it’s best to just enjoy the next few games while there is, comparatively, so little at stake.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -1.5 (-110), Raptors +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -122, Raptors +104
Total: 220

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 220 Total Points (+239, FanDuel Sportsbook)

These teams played on March 20 in Philadelphia, and neither team scored 100 points. The Raptors are sixth in the NBA in defense as measured by opponents points per game. The Raptors are also not an especially high-scoring group, 20th in the league (109.4 points per game). Raptors’ coach Nick Nurse will have no interest in allowing the Sixers much in the open court, and as such this game could be a battle of attrition.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 32.5 Points (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)

It’s a shame that the regular season is coming to an end, because given a few more weeks against tired opponents, the Embiid points over/under prop could have ended up at 40.5 one of these nights. The -105 here suggests that the book agrees that the scoring generally in this game will be lower than usual. That doesn’t mean Embiid won’t get his…it more likely means a dreadful night for the Sixers’ bench.

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Tyrese Maxey Over 15.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Maxey broke out of a mini-slump in a big way with 30 points against the Pacers two nights ago. He won’t get 30 tonight; he might not even get 20. But he’ll get at least 16, which is all we care about. Maxey is averaging better than 17 per game.

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Pascal Siakam Double Double (+120, FOX Bet)

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Matisse Thybulle would have been assigned to slow Siakam down for at least part of this game. Thybulle is out tonight, though. Siakam has posted double doubles in four of his past five games. His season averages are 22.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds a game. Essentially, we’re getting positive odds on Siakam getting two more rebounds than normal.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

With everything that is happening above and below them in the standings, and with the knowledge that this is the last road game of the season, it’s difficult to imagine that the Sixers will have either the motivation or candidly the desire to win this game. If the Sixers win out to end up with 52 wins, they could conceivably secure the second seed and end up playing the Nets in the first round. Gross. There’s an easy way to avoid that tonight.

Pick: Raptors moneyline (+107, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Crossing Broad Does Augusta

Philip Keidel — Wed, 06 Apr 2022 20:28:44 +0000

Content note: What follows is not a humble brag. It’s just a brag.

Like millions of golf fanatics, I enter the Masters ticket lottery every June. And like the vast majority of those entrants, sometime later I have regularly received the “we regret to inform you” email from Augusta National Golf Club letting me know that, sadly, my ticket application was not selected. I have received that message many times.

But after so many rejections, I received the other one, the one that begins with: “Congratulations.” My entry had been selected to receive Monday practice round tickets, and so my son and I were among thousands of humble patrons strolling the immaculate grounds of Augusta National in advance of the 2022 Masters. It’s everything they say. We’re not “fans” at Augusta National. We’re “patrons.” It’s an honorific.

Here we are on the 18th tee — thanks to the green jacketed member, unnamed, who took the picture.

There are countless advice pieces elsewhere about what to do if you ever get lucky enough to go to Augusta National, whether it’s during a practice round or during competition. What follows are the tips I can provide that I never saw elsewhere:

No matter how early you have to wake up, no matter how stupid you think it might be to get to the parking lot at 7:00 a.m. when the gates will open an hour later, get there in time for the gates to open. Be a dew sweeper. Your access to the golf course and everything else in those first couple of hours will be worth the effort.
Know exactly what you want from the merchandise center before you walk in. You will be stunned at the number of people who seem to be picking things out at random and/or walking in circles. It’s a professional layout — bring a professional approach.
Take advantage of the inexpensive concessions…within reason. A buck fifty for a pimento cheese sandwich, three bucks for an Augusta Club (turkey, ham, cheese on a Brioche roll), these are no-brainers. Where it gets dicey is the $5.00 beers served in Masters souvenir cups. You’re going to want to pace yourself there.
For God’s sake, don’t stand at the tee with hundreds of other dummies watching your favorite player hit a tee shot. Get out 300 yards ahead of him along the ropes and wait for him to show up to hit the second shot, where you have staked your place on the ropes. This is obvious, and yet most people don’t seem to get it until the tee shot is in the air.
Do as the others are doing and refrain from calling out a player’s name or otherwise trying to get his attention. This is a vacation day for you, and an ecstatic one at that, but for the player this is literally his workplace and his job.
Once you have walked all 18 holes in the morning — and please, make sure to walk all 18 holes — grab a seat in one of the grandstands and let the afternoon just wash over you. This is golf heaven. We can agree that heaven, if it exists, is not a place where you trudge up and down hills. It’s a place to sit, smell the fragrant breeze, and watch elite golfers struggle to make par. That’s my heaven, anyway.

The likelihood that I’ll ever be on the golf course at Augusta National again is, well, not great. But I got there once, which is one more time than I ever thought I’d get.

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Sixers vs. Pacers Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (April 5, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Tue, 05 Apr 2022 18:24:32 +0000

On Tuesday night, the Sixers will be in Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers. The Sixers have won two in a row to climb back into fourth place in the Eastern Conference. At 48-30, the Sixers lead the Bulls by three games, so the Sixers are all but assured of having home court in the first round of the playoffs.

The Pacers are 25-54 and have long since been out of the playoff picture. That probably explains why the Pacers are dead last in the league in attendance this season. We thought Indiana was a basketball paradise! Maybe they’re all home watching “Hoosiers” on DVD.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Pacers betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 5, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Pacers Betting Pick (April 5, 2022)

We have so much love for Joel Embiid that it’s hard to say what we’re about to say, but we feel like it’s important to say it: The Most Valuable Player award is not worth your dignity.

Embiid was quoted after the Sixers’ win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night as follows: “If it happens, great. If it doesn’t I don’t know what I have to do. I’ll feel like they hate me. I feel like the standard for guys in Philly or for me is different than everyone else.”

Ugh.

Let’s say Embiid is right, that the MVP voting is some sort of weird popularity contest. We don’t know much about how to become popular, but we’re pretty sure that whining, adopting a victim complex and actively slagging the people who are making the decisions on popularity ain’t the way to go.

As for the Philadelphia angle…well, we haven’t had many great players here. Allen Iverson won the MVP in 2001, the year he took the Sixers to the NBA Finals. Prior to Iverson, you have to go all the way back to Moses Malone (1983) and Julius Erving (1981) to find Sixers MVP’s. We don’t need to tell you how great the Sixers were in the early 1980’s. Neither the Sixers nor Embiid has progressed even to an Eastern Conference final in Embiid’s time here. Stuff like that matters.

It’s OK to be frustrated. It’s just not a great look to show it like that.

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Sixers vs. Pacers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Pacers at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -11.5 (-110), Pacers +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -670, Pacers +490
Total: 234.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 234.5 Total Points (+117, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The heavy Sixers money line makes this parlay close to an even-money payer, but that’s fine with us. The Pacers are giving up 115.6 points per game, 28th in the league in points against. Here are the totals in the last four Pacers games: 238, 251, 243, 255. Like a lot of teams playing out the string, the Pacers have more or less stopped playing defense. The Sixers have shown a recent propensity to punish bad defensive teams, as they did to the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday night when they scored 144.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 33.5 Points (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

The same petulance and frustration that fueled Embiid’s complaining on Sunday night are the same elements that make this over feel like a lock. Embiid is quite clearly going to do whatever he can down the stretch to change some minds and win some voters over (at least on the court).

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Tyrese Maxey Over 16.5 Points (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Maxey’s breakout year has suffered a bit of a winding down phase in the past ten days. He hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any of his last six starts. But two of those games came against teams that were actually trying (Phoenix and Milwaukee) and another came in that inexplicable loss to the Pistons. In what promises to be a wide-open contest, Maxey should have little trouble scoring in the open floor enough times to beat this number.

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James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-125, FOX Bet)

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Harden has had double-digit assists in each of his last two games. The Pacers don’t defend very well and give up a lot of points. Many of those Sixers points project to be created by Harden both in the open floor and in the half-court. At -125, it’s a heavy price, but ultimately it’s worth it.

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Sixers vs. Pacers Prediction

We are sticking with our tried-and-true formula with the Sixers. We would never lay this amount of points against a good team on the road. The Pacers are very, very far from being a good team, and tonight will mark the 80th game on the schedule for them. They finish the season on the road on Sunday afternoon in Brooklyn — it’s highly probable that many Pacers players will be flying out of JFK or Newark Sunday night to parts unknown, this lost season already in the rearview mirror.

Pick: Sixers -11.5 (-109, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Lakers Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 23, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Wed, 23 Mar 2022 17:56:55 +0000

On Wednesday night, the Sixers are in Tinseltown to play the Los Angeles Lakers. The Sixers posted an inexplicable win over the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat on Monday night despite missing both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The win pulled the Sixers to within 2.5 games of the conference lead, though they still trail the Milwaukee Bucks by half a game. The Lakers are mathematically locked out of the first six playoff spots in the Western Conference. They are hanging on grimly to the ninth seed and the playoff play-in.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Lakers betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 23, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Lakers Betting Pick (March 23, 2022)

In the modern era, the only great Sixers are players who had no choice but to come play here. Joel Embiid was drafted by the Sixers. So was Allen Iverson. So was Ben Simmons (maybe not great, but an All-Star). Even sub-immortals like Andre Iguodala only played here because the league’s draft compelled them to.

Meanwhile, teams like the Los Angeles Lakers constantly have three bites at the apple. They can draft a great player, as they did with Magic Johnson and James Worthy. They can bring great players in via free agency, as they did with LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal. Or they can have some unsteady combination of “player doesn’t want to go to Charlotte, somehow ends up in Los Angeles” bring them a player like Kobe Bryant. Point is, Los Angeles is such a destination, players want to go there whether the team is going to win a title or not. See also Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and on and on.

And it’s not like this is just an NBA thing. The Dodgers’ lineup is packed with these emigrants — Freddie Freeman, Trevor Bauer, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner. The Rams just won a Super Bowl with Detroit Lions refugee Matthew Stafford. We don’t really watch a lot of hockey on the Sixers betting beat, but we remember when the Kings won a Stanley Cup with Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, so there’s that.

Why do we live here again?

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Sixers vs. Lakers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Lakers at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -7 (-110), Lakers +7 (-112)
Moneyline: Sixers -295, Lakers +240
Total: 230

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 230 Total Points (+156, FanDuel Sportsbook)

We’re pretty excited about this one, not going to lie. The Lakers are an abysmal defensive team. They’re giving up 114.1 points per game, 26th in the league. They are, however, 12th in the league in points scored at 111.5 per game. The last three Lakers games have all gone over 230; it’s apparent that the Lakers have decided that they’re just going to score their way into the playoff play-in and take their chances.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

LeBron James Double Double (+130, Caesars Sportsbook)

James had a triple double against the Cleveland Cavaliers two nights ago and a double double against the Washington Wizards four nights ago. The points are a virtual lock, so essentially you’re getting +130 on James getting either 10 rebounds or 10 assists. We like it.

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Matisse Thybulle Over 5.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Thybulle’s high-scoring games — and by high-scoring, we mean when he scores six or more points — generally come in two types of games. The first is a game against a bad defensive team. The second is a game against a team that doesn’t take good care of the basketball. The Lakers are both. We’ve already touched on their defensive inefficiency. They also turn it over 14.7 times per game, 28th in the league. This is a recipe for some Thybulle thievery and at least one breakaway dunk.

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Joel Embiid Over 31.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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Due to the Anthony Davis-sized hole in the Lakers’ lineup, this prop is -125 everywhere. There is no point in shopping for better odds and there is no good reason not to take it.

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Sixers vs. Lakers Prediction

The Lakers are 4-6 in their last ten games. Each of those six losses has been by at least seven points, and three of their last four losses were by double digits. We don’t like laying points with the Sixers on the road against good teams. Fortunately, the Lakers low-key suck.

Pick: Sixers -7.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Heat Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 21, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Mon, 21 Mar 2022 17:57:43 +0000

On Monday night, the Sixers will host the Miami Heat. The Sixers played very poorly last night in a home loss to the Toronto Raptors. The loss dropped the Sixers to 43-27, three and a half games behind the Heat. The Eastern Conference-leading Heat have opened up a three game lead at the top of the standings.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Heat betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 21, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Heat Betting Pick (March 21, 2022)

James Harden has played 11 games with the Sixers. The team is 7-4 in those 11 games, which is certainly better than having a losing record. Unfortunately, those four losses have come in the team’s past eight games, and three of those losses (at Miami on March 5, home to the Brooklyn Nets on March 10, last night at home against Toronto) came against teams that the Sixers could face in the playoffs. Harden didn’t play in the Miami loss, so that one isn’t on him.

Harden’s arrival was splashy. He is doing more or less what he was expected to do. He has attempted nearly 10 free throws per game and averaged over 11 assists per game as a Sixer. The expected scoring is there too, as Harden has scored over 22 points per game. That’s right on line with his season average of 22.5 points per game. So Harden is the player the Sixers thought they were acquiring.

Still undecided is whether Harden is the player who can take the Sixers on a deep playoff run. Those losses against the Nets and the Raptors coincidentally came in games where Harden didn’t score 20 points or have double digit assists.

Three of the Sixers’ next five games are against teams with better records. As noted above, the Heat are three and a half games ahead of the Sixers. The Sixers will play the Phoenix Suns out west on March 27. On March 29, the Sixers will host the Bucks, who are currently half a game ahead of the Sixers. None of these games individually can fairly be a measuring stick on Harden. Collectively, though…maybe.

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Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers +2 (-110), Heat -2 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers +112, Heat -132
Total: 215.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 215.5 Total Points (+285, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Sixers are playing the back half of a home back-to-back in this game after last night’s game was comfortably under its total. The Heat are rested and boast the fourth-best defense in the league based on points per game against (104.8 points per game). We’re not picking the Sixers to win this game, but if they do win, it’ll probably be a grind.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Jimmy Butler Under 30.5 Points, Assists and Rebounds (-115, Caesars Sportsbook)

Butler is questionable for tonight’s game, but this prop is being offered, so the book thinks Butler will play. He has missed four of his team’s last eight games, and in the last six games Butler did play, he posted 30 or fewer total points, assists and rebounds four times. We think Butler’s minutes may be limited and his effectiveness may therefore be impacted.

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Duncan Robinson Over 9.5 Points (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We can’t figure this one out. Robinson has averaged 12 points per game for his career and is scoring 11.4 points per game this season. In four of his last six games, Robinson has had at least 12 points. We think double digits is almost a foregone conclusion here.

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Joel Embiid Over 27.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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Last night’s subpar shooting night broke a four-game streak where Embiid had scored 30+ points in each game. Embiid is averaging 29.8 points per game this season. We’ll put it this way: Any time this prop lands at 27.5 or less, we’re probably taking it.

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Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

The Heat are a tough matchup for just about everybody. Their record proves that. The Heat are an especially rough matchup for the Sixers. The Heat have already beaten the Sixers twice this season and can all but eliminate the Sixers as a competitor for the Eastern Conference’s top seed if they win this game. There isn’t a compelling reason to pick the Sixers tonight, so we won’t.

Pick: Heat moneyline (-137, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 20, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sun, 20 Mar 2022 20:56:27 +0000

On Sunday night, the Sixers will take on the Toronto Raptors at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers handled the Dallas Mavericks fairly easily on Friday night, posting a second straight win. The Sixers are back in a virtual tie with the Milwaukee Bucks for second place in the Eastern Conference, three games behind the Miami Heat. The Raptors lost in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday night to drop to 39-31. The Raptors are in seventh place and will need to move up at least one place in the standings to avoid the playoff play-in.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 20, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (March 20, 2022)

Joel Embiid is the only reason the Sixers are better than the Raptors. Quietly, the Raptors have moved past the loss of Kawhi Leonard and the inevitable championship hangover and put together a roster that, with one or two more key additions, could get right back into legitimate title contention.

The Raptors’ leading scorer is Pascal Siakam. This is Siakam’s fifth season in the league. He will turn 28 in a few weeks. Siakam is one of the “old guys” on this team. Fred VanVleet averages 21.1 points per game. VanVleet is already 28. The Raptors’ next three highest scorers all put up more than 15 points per game, and they are all young.

Gary Trent Jr. (18.2 points per game) is 23 years old. OG Anunoby (17.5 per game) is 24. Scottie Barnes, currently getting 15.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, is a 20-year-old rookie. All of these players are being brought along by head coach Nick Nurse, whose record in nearly four full seasons is 177-119, good for a winning percentage of .598.

The Raptors are plenty good right now. If they make a few more solid moves and eventually either acquire a superstar or see one of their young assets develop into one…look out.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -6.5 (-110), Raptors +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -270, Raptors +220
Total: 219

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 219 Total Points (+144, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Raptors are just average on both sides of the ball. They rank 19th in scoring (109 points per game) and 10th in points against (107.5 points per game). The Sixers are actually in the bottom third of NBA teams in scoring (108.7 points per game, 20th place in the league), and their defense is in the top quarter (106.7 points per game, 7th in the league). Nurse is going to try to make this a chess match against Sixers head coach Doc Rivers…and really, why shouldn’t he?

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Tyrese Maxey Over 17.5 Points (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)

We have no inside information here, but as this is being written four hours before tip-off, Embiid is questionable. Earlier this season, Maxey enjoyed multiple 20+ point games when Embiid was sidelined. Maxey can get to 18 points even if Embiid plays — but if Embiid is a late scratch, this prop is a clanking lock.

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James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-150, DraftKings Sportsbook)

We know the return is weak. Shop it elsewhere if that’s what you want to do. The Harden assist prop has been highly profitable from the time he joined this team. If you hate free money, that’s a you problem.

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Pascal Siakam Under 23.5 Points (-133, FOX Bet)

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Give Siakam a lot of credit. The past couple of seasons, all the promise he showed in the early part of his career looked like fool’s gold. This season, though, Siakam is averaging 21.9 points per game, six and a half more than his career average. But that doesn’t make him a “scorer.” Penciling him in for 24 or more against a better team seems aggressive.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

That sound you hear as you read this is us tapping. This line is way too high — WAY TOO HIGH. The books are begging you to take the Raptors. We’re not even sure the Sixers could beat the Raptors in a seven-game playoff series. Actually, we’re skeptical that they could. But tonight? A Sunday night at the far tail end of the NBA regular season slog? It’s hard to believe, but yes, the Sixers probably win this game by 10.

Pick: Sixers -6.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Philip Keidel — Sun, 20 Mar 2022 18:34:53 +0000

March Madness is more like March irritation so far but our Caesars Sportsbook promo code can take the sting out of your busted bracket. Kentucky ruined many brackets, but otherwise the chalk is holding up. With the Sweet 16 beckoning, though, some of the higher seeds and bigger names are going to face stern tests. Our Caesars Sportsbook promo code gives the NCAA Tournament fan a chance to do more than track a bracket.

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This March Madness promo provides new players with a risk-free bet of up to $1,100 for any NCAA Tournament game. With so many pre-tournament favorites still alive, there are plenty of opportunities to bank on a high seed. There are also several lively underdogs looking to take the next step into the second weekend of the tournament. With our Caesars Sportsbook promo code, a new user can accumulate some quick winnings and set up a tournament run of his own. A risk-free bet of up to $1,100 that wins can pay off in a big way.

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Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code Unlocks a Risk-Free Bet of Up to $1,100

The Caesars Sportsbook promo code gives the new user access to a risk-free bet of up to $1,100. That bet can be placed on any of the tournament’s remaining games. This promotional bet gives the new player a wide variety of options. The risk-free bet could be for $1, or $100, or $1,100, or any number in between. The new player can choose a heavy favorite, an evenly matched team, or a big underdog. Conservative, aggressive, or somewhere in the middle — the options lie with the player.

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Sixers vs. Mavericks Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 18, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 17:57:00 +0000

On Friday night, the Sixers kick off a three-game home stand against the Dallas Mavericks at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers have won one in a row, a narrow win (and cover) over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. The Sixers are alone in third place in the Eastern Conference at 42-26. If the season ended today, they’d play the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, which the Sixers would probably jump at. The Mavericks are a half game better than the Sixers at 43-26, but that’s only good enough for fifth place in the Western Conference.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Mavericks betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 18, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Mavericks Betting Pick (March 18, 2022)

On one hand, we want to savage Sixers head coach Doc Rivers for running his best players into the ground as of late. On the other hand, what else is he supposed to do?

James Harden played 42 minutes on Wednesday night. Tobias Harris played 39 minutes, and Tyrese Maxey played 38. On Monday night, their minutes totals were: Maxey 42, Harden 39, Harris 37. DeAndre Jordan’s arrival has allowed Rivers to spell Joel Embiid for about 13 minutes a night, but there has definitely been a drop-off from Andre Drummond in those minutes.

The heavy workload for the other starters is not optimal, but there’s probably no way around it. Georges Niang has had moments this season, but in the past two games he has scored eight points in 25 minutes and then three points in 19 minutes. At some point, if Niang is your sixth-best player, your team probably isn’t deep enough to make a serious playoff run.

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Sixers vs. Mavericks Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Mavericks at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -3.5 (-108), Mavericks +3.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Sixers -154, Mavericks +130
Total: 217

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 217 Total Points (+208, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Mavericks are the best defensive team in the league by opposition points against (103.7 per game). That’s how they’re 17 games over .500 despite being 26th in the league in scoring (106.7 points per game). The Sixers only give up 106.8 points per game, ranked seventh in the league. There aren’t many indicators live here to suggest that this game will go over 217 points.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Luka Doncic to Not Record a Double Double (+120, Caesars Sportsbook)

We are swerving a bit with this one. When these teams played in February, we predicted a Doncic triple double and he got it. As of late, though, Doncic has been less consistent with posting double figures in either rebounds or assists. Specifically, he has posted a double double in only half of his past 10 games. So we’re getting an essentially even money proposition at +120. We’ll take the chance.

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James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Harden has played nine games with the Sixers and has posted 11 or more assists in six of them. He had 11 assists on Monday night and 11 more on Wednesday night. We’d take this prop at -110, so we’re definitely taking it at +110.

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Matisse Thybulle Under 5.5 Points (+100, FOX Bet)

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Thybulle has scored six or more points in only three of his last eight games, and more tellingly, in three of those games, he didn’t score at all.

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Sixers vs. Mavericks Prediction

We may be missing something, but this line doesn’t make a lot of sense to us. The Mavericks have won eight of their last ten games, and three in a row. Two of those wins were at Boston and at Brooklyn, two teams that the Sixers have real problems handling. The Mavericks have basically the same record as the Sixers and they play in a tougher conference. The Mavericks didn’t play last night. You can call this a Sixers line all you want. We’re going the other way.

Pick: Mavericks moneyline (+130, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 16, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Wed, 16 Mar 2022 17:17:27 +0000

On Wednesday night, the Sixers will be in Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. The Sixers are coming off a home loss to the Denver Nuggets where the Sixers won the first quarter by 15 points. They took a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and lost by four. It was pretty desolate. The loss dropped the Sixers to 41-26. They are 3.5 games out of first place in the conference and one game ahead of fifth place, i.e., they are one game from being on the road in the first Rond of the playoffs. It’s not great.

As for the Cavaliers, their early-season success is in a slow ebb. They are 39-29 and in sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Cavaliers betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 16, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Cavaliers Betting Pick (March 16, 2022)

As the old adage goes, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. The Sixers are 15 games over .500 and have won seven of their last ten. That’s good, right? Sure, if you don’t look at the three losses, which have come in the past five games.

The Sixers were thoroughly outplayed in Miami on March 5. They were embarrassed on national television by Brooklyn at home a week ago. Monday night’s loss to the Nuggets, again at home, was less an embarrassment than a warning. The Sixers still can’t hold a lead, they still don’t have closers, and they still have defensive lapses at all the wrong times.

The schedule-makers concurrently helped the Sixers and screwed the Sixers with tonight’s game. It had to be aggravating to leave Philadelphia just to go to Cleveland for one mid-week game when the next three games will be home games. Then again, they get Cleveland when they are missing center Jarrett Allen, a big who might have slowed Joel Embiid down tonight.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Cavaliers at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -2 (-110), Cavaliers +2 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -130, Cavaliers +110
Total: 219.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 219.5 Total Points (+217, FanDuel Sportsbook)

If you’re convinced that the Sixers will win the game (which we are not), tack in onto the over. The last four Sixers games have gone over, even though the game against the Nuggets only beat the number by half a point. That’s all it takes. This prop is on the low side because the Cavaliers have the second-best defense in the league based on opponents’ points per game (103.8). The Sixers cannot expect to win a grind-it-out game based on recent evidence. They’re going to need to hit shots in bunches to win this game.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James Harden Double Double (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

Harden’s points over/under is 22.5, which is a little more than we wanted to take on. So instead, we’ll take a shot with the double double. Harden has posted a double double in four of the seven games he has played with the Sixers, and in one of the games where he missed it, he posted a 26/9/9. This bet seems safer than his points line, so we’re taking it.

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Darius Garland Over 2.5 Three-Point Field Goals (+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Garland has made three or more three-pointers in nine of his last 12 games. He is also putting up a lot of triples — a whopping 84 attempts over that 12-game span, an even seven per game. Garland probably saw the footage from Monday night, where the Sixers gave up 13 threes to the Nuggets, who shot them at almost 40% in that game. We would like this prop at even money, so getting it at +120 is very attractive.

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Lauri Markkanen Over 14.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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Here’s another sort of curious line from the books tonight. Markkanen has scored 15 or more in each of his last four contests, and in seven of his last 11. The Sixers are a decent defensive team, but they don’t really have a stopper for a seven-footer who doesn’t live exclusively in the low block.

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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Prediction

Sometimes it’s just this simple: We trust the Sixers to scratch out a win here, for the most part, but we really don’t trust them enough to lay points to a playoff team on the road. As we have noted before, you should really only take points if you think the underdog has a chance to win the game. The Cavaliers could absolutely win this game outright, so the points are just insurance.

Pick: Cavaliers +3 (-113, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Nuggets Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 14, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 18:52:26 +0000

On Monday night, the Sixers return to the Wells Fargo Center to take on the Denver Nuggets. The Sixers were taken to overtime by the Orlando Magic last night in Florida, but eked out a win. The Sixers are now 41-25 and are in a virtual tie with the Milwaukee Bucks for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Nuggets lost to Toronto in Denver on Saturday night to fall to 40-28, sixth in the Western Conference.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Nuggets betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 14, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Nuggets Betting Pick (March 14, 2022)

The Sixers beat the Magic last night, just about, but all we could think about was how funny it was that they were sneaking past the Magic in overtime just as the Magic were proving that the magic that seemed to come to the Sixers with James Harden’s arrival was smoke and mirrors.

Having watched Harden play for other teams in other situations for such a long time, it came as no surprise that he doesn’t defend anybody, like, at all. Harden’s value comes at the offensive end. When he’s right, it’s fun to watch…but when he’s not right, woof.

First the Brooklyn Nets and then the Orlando Magic in the past two games essentially conceded the step-back three pointers, deciding instead to deny Harden any path to the basket. Harden’s shot was off in both games, which led to multiple instances of Harden driving into traffic, flailing and hoping to get to the free throw line. It happened rarely in the Nets game; last night, it happened just enough. But all of the playoff teams with reasonable defensive capabilities have a game plan for Harden now.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, at the end of the Magic game, the Magic were essentially double-teaming both Harden and Joel Embiid and daring anyone else to do anything. This strategy panned out beautifully when Tobias Harris missed a potential game-winning layup at the end of regulation.

Starting with tonight, the Sixers’ next five games come against probable playoff teams. If Harden has any of that magic he had when he got here left, he’d better find it soon.

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Sixers vs. Nuggets Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Nuggets at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -2.5 (-112), Nuggets +2.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Sixers -142, Nuggets +120
Total: 223.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 223.5 Total Points (+210, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Overtime is not the friend of the under bettor, and it burned us last night. Unlike the Magic, though, the Nuggets are plenty potent (12th in the league in scoring, 111.1 points per game). The lowest total in the last three Sixers games was 227, and insofar as this is the second half of a road/home back-to-back, the Sixers’ defensive legs may not be there.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-120, Caesars Sportsbook)

One bad outcome is a fluke. A second bad outcome is a shame. A third bad outcome is a concern. Harden went 3-17 from the field against the Nets and 5-19 from the field against the Magic. Whether he’s the championship cog we thought he was, or whether he’s not, he’s just not this poor of a shooter.

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Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Is this game going to decide the NBA Most Valuable Player race between Embiid and Jokic? Probably not. Will Jokic be properly motivated to try to make a statement tonight? Probably so. Did Embiid play 41 minutes last night while Jokic had a day off? Yes.

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Joel Embiid Under 31.5 Points (-125, FOX Bet)

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It’s a back-to-back following an overtime game on the road. Embiid has scored fewer than 31.5 points in four of his last six outings. Jokic is not a darling of the defensive metrics crowd, but he’s a big body with a point to prove.

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Sixers vs. Nuggets Prediction

The Sixers borrowed from this Nuggets game to get the win in Orlando last night, and the bill comes due tonight. Here were the minute counts on the Sixers last night: 45 for Tyrese Maxey, 44 each for Harris and Harden, 41 for Embiid, 36 for Georges Niang. Less than 24 hours after sneaking out of Orlando with an overtime win, they have to tip off against a playoff team with an MVP candidate. Thanks but no thanks.

Pick: Nuggets money line (-123, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Magic Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 13, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Sun, 13 Mar 2022 19:12:03 +0000

On Sunday night, the Sixers will be in Orlando to take on the Magic. The Sixers are coming off a comprehensive beatdown by the Brooklyn Nets which only counted for one game in the standings but somehow felt much worse than that. The Sixers are in a virtual tie with the Chicago Bulls for third place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Magic are the worst team in the conference, but have won five of their last eight.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Magic betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 13, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Magic Betting Pick (March 13, 2022)

Thursday night’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets didn’t do much to damage the Sixers’ playoff positioning, but it presaged playoff troubles.

It turns out that James Harden’s track record as a regular season superstar and playoff journeyman followed him to Philadelphia. It was a regular season game in Philadelphia on Thursday night, but the atmosphere given the whole Ben Simmons situation and the fact that the game was nationally televised made it feel a lot like a playoff game. Harden was terrible. He had 11 points, six rebounds, five assists and four turnovers. Essentially, he posted a Tobias Harris line in a game that demanded him to post a James Harden line.

One of the narratives emerging from this game is that the Sixers would do well to steer clear of the Nets in the playoffs because the Nets match up so well against the Sixers. Sure, whatever, but Thursday night’s game raises a much more troubling question: Who can the Sixers reliably beat in a seven-game playoff series? On Thursday night’s evidence, not the Nets, not the Milwaukee Bucks, not the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics…are we really headed for another second-round exit after everything that happened this season?

We know this much — rolling the Orlando Magic tonight won’t make anyone feel any better, but losing to the Magic or even playing them close could trigger more alarm bells.

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Sixers vs. Magic Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Magic at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -12 (-110), Magic +12 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -850, Magic +590
Total: 223

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 223 Total Points (+105, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Not much of a return on this one, but the Sixers money line is so heavy that the parlay offers little real value. Under is the choice here because the Magic are 28th in the NBA in scoring, at 104 points per game.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

No Sixers fan wanted Harden to face plant like he did on Thursday night, but if there was ever a spot for Harden to find his rhythm again, this is it. Weirdly, the fact that it’s a road game helps, and the fact that it’s the Magic helps even more.

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Wendell Carter Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Because he plays on a terrible team, Carter Jr. isn’t a name that casual NBA fans know all that well. But the Magic center is putting together an impressive 2021-2022 campaign, averaging 14.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Carter Jr. has scored at least 20 points in six of his last 10 games.

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Joel Embiid Under 12.5 Rebounds (-138, FOX Bet)

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It’s that last half rebound that makes this play an under. Embiid has posted more than 12 rebounds in only two of his last seven starts. At 11.5, this would be an over play. We also have to factor in the possibility that the Sixers put this game away early and do some load management for Embiid in the late stages.

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Sixers vs. Magic Prediction

It’s just too many points. The Magic have been really competitive lately, the Sixers are coming off an absolute stink bomb and figure to play a bit more conservatively than they ordinarily might. Moreover, this is a trap game for Embiid, as the Sixers will be home to face the Denver Nuggets tomorrow night in a game that will have implications on the NBA Most Valuable Player race. The Sixers will win, but covering a dozen is too big of an ask.

Pick: Magic +12 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Sixers vs. Nets Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (March 10, 2022)

Philip Keidel — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 16:17:49 +0000

On Thursday night, the Sixers welcome the Brooklyn Nets to the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers got back to winning ways with a comfortable win over the Chicago Bulls on Monday night. The Sixers are 40-24 and trail the Milwaukee Bucks by half a game for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Nets are 33-33 and are presently in the play-in places as the NBA playoffs approach.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Nets betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this March 10, 2022 matchup.

Sixers vs. Nets Betting Pick (March 10, 2022)

As of this writing, the story goes that Ben Simmons (who was seen in Philadelphia last night) will be on the Nets bench tonight as 20,000+ Sixers fans spend three hours taking out years of Sixers futility on him. On its face, this seems like an indefensibly stupid choice by the Nets. Simmons hasn’t played a game this season and there is no timetable for his return to active status. The Nets could easily have left Simmons in Brooklyn “to continue his rehabilitation” or whatever. Instead, the Nets are intentionally putting a player whose mental and emotional wellbeing has been, let’s just say, an issue all season, and submitting him to the wrath of the fan base he betrayed. It’s a weird choice.

Thinking of this as a long game play, though, it makes more sense. Putting Simmons on the court could have been pretty disastrous, but there is only so much negative attention Simmons can receive sitting on the bench (especially once the game starts). Once Simmons is past this night, the only real hurdle with regard to getting past his time in Philadelphia and how it ended will be playing a game here, and it could be a really, really long time before that ever happens. Allow us to explain.

The Nets play in Philadelphia twice a year in the regular season. That’s it. This makes it not only possible but probable that the Nets traded for Simmons figuring that they may just scratch Simmons for any of those regular season appearances in Philadelphia as a default setting. Players miss games all the time for all sorts of reasons. They can use the Sixers games in Philadelphia as load management, assuming Simmons ever plays again.

“Hey, but that’s not going to work in the playoffs!” We hear you, but as Tom Petty once famously sang, “Most things I worry about never happen anyway.” The Sixers and the Nets have faced each other in the playoffs three times in the past 43 years: 1979, 1984 and 2019. Not only do both teams have to make the playoffs, they have to end up in each others’ half of the draw OR meet in the conference final. The odds on this are far longer than you think. If this season ended today, the Sixers would play the Cavaliers in the first round, and the Nets would be playing the Charlotte Hornets in the play-in for the right to take on the Milwaukee Bucks. Do you see the Nets getting past the Bucks this season? We don’t.

So people will yell and scream at Simmons tonight. Simmons and the Nets know that it’s a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

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Sixers vs. Nets Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Nets at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Point Spread: Sixers -4.5 (-110), Nets +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Sixers -198, Nets +166
Total: 234.5

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Over 234.5 Total Points (+181, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The over/under in the Bulls game was two points lower and didn’t hit. We blame James Harden, who played a great game but only scored 16 points. Anyway, Harden isn’t being held to 16 points tonight, and Joel Embiid (who had 43 on Monday night) probably has 50 in his sights against the Andre Drummond/Nic Clayton combo he’ll face with LaMarcus Aldridge out. Toss in a likely big night from Kevin Durant, and the over seems probable. And oh by the way, the totals in the last two Nets games were 253 and 246.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

James Harden Over 35.5 Points and Assists (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

We laughed at Harden’s assists prop (over 10.5 assists at -145). The oddsmakers are obviously tired of getting blistered on that specific wager. Harden had 14 more assists on Monday night and cashed it very easily. So to bring that juice down some, we’ll count on a bounce back game from a scoring standpoint in the area of 25 points and 10-12 more assists.

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Joel Embiid Under 12.5 Rebounds (-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Embiid did whatever he wanted on Monday night because the Bulls were without Nikola Vucevic. Sixers fans who watched Drummond this season know that while he isn’t a multi-faceted scoring threat, he is still a menace from a rebounding perspective. A lot of those easy rebounds Embiid picked up on Monday night on his way to 14 just won’t be there tonight.

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Kevin Durant Under 30.5 Points (-133, FOX Bet)

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Durant has looked good since returning from the injury that cost him about six weeks. In the three games since his return he has gone over 30 points twice. But In the longer view, Durant has scored fewer than 30 points in seven of his last 10 starts where he played more than 13 minutes. And Durant had 14 points in almost 40 minutes two nights ago, on just 13 field goal attempts.

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Sixers vs. Nets Prediction

The knee-jerk response here is to think that the Sixers will win to exact some sort of revenge over Simmons. That logic doesn’t work out as often as you think. For a reference point, see the Duke Blue Devils losing Coach K’s last game at Cameron Indoor as a heavy favorite to the hated North Carolina Tar Heels. The Sixers won’t win this game to make a statement to Simmons. The Sixers will win this game because the Nets are a .500 team 66 games into the season. At some point, it is true that you are what your record says you are.

Pick: Sixers -4.5 (-112, Barstool Sportsbook)

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